With the preparations for the visit of Jean-Yves Le Drian, the special envoy of the French president and former foreign minister, to Lebanon next week, in an attempt to break the deadlock that resulted from the twelfth election session, there must be a focus, as political sources told "Asharq Al-Awsat," on the distribution of votes among the Christian MPs for the competing candidates, namely the leader of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, and former minister Jihad Azour, who has gained progress in the number of votes over his opponent.
This article was originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Asharq al-Awsat.
It is not permissible for Le Drian to ignore them, just as he did not ignore Azour's lack of Shiite support, as the Amal Movement and Hezbollah's votes favored Frangieh.
For those who examine the distribution of the 64 Christian MPs in Parliament, it becomes clear that Azour has garnered the support of 44 deputies, compared to Frangieh's support from 13 deputies, a difference of 31 votes.
The rest are distributed among former Minister Ziad Baroud (3 votes) and Army Commander General Joseph Aoun (1 vote), in addition to one vote for "New Lebanon" and three other papers, one blank, one canceled, and one void of any ballot.
Therefore, Le Drian is facing a new equation different from the one that was in place and led Paris to put forward an initiative based on the exchange of electing Frangieh as president of the republic under the pretext that he is the 'easiest' candidate to put an end to the continued obstruction of the election sessions. In return, Ambassador Nawaf Salam, former ambassador, and envoy of the French president, would be tasked with forming the future government. Consequently, Le Drian is now forced to develop a new political formula that brings together the conflicting parties.
The French presidential envoy is currently facing, as the same sources said, an equation that is difficult for him to overcome and is based on the impossibility of electing a president who poses a challenge to Hezbollah and Amal Movement that support Frangieh, as well as to the Christian trio composed of the "Lebanese Forces" and "Kataeb" parties and the "Free Patriotic Movement" led by MP Gebran Bassil.
Although it is rumored that some deputies affiliated with Bassil, contrary to his denial, voted in favor of Frangieh, in addition to several independent deputies, without discounting the support of the Druze deputies for Jihad Azour, totaling 8, including six deputies from the Democratic Gathering bloc led by MP Taymour Jumblatt, and two from the Forces of Change. This is what deprived Frangieh of any Druze support.
As Le Drian stands before Frangieh's inability, through his allies in the Axis of Resistance, to exert parliamentary influence in Mount Lebanon, which is represented by 25 Christian deputies, of whom he obtained three deputies: Faird Haykal Al-Khazen, Michel Elias El-Murr, and the leader of the Tashnag Party, Hagop Pakradounian. Will the Christian parliamentary opposition to Frangieh be overlooked? And what will he say to the Vatican, which insists on protecting the Christian presence in Lebanon by electing a president who enjoys the support of the Christian majority?
However, in discussing the distribution of deputies' votes, it is necessary to ask about the role of Sunni deputies, numbering 27 MPs, in the presidential competition in the absence of the religious authority capable of gathering the largest number of them in one parliamentary bloc after the main references in the Sunni component decided to refrain from participating in the last parliamentary elections and not to intervene in the composition of the electoral lists, remaining neutral in the parliamentary competition that led to the fragmentation of Sunni representation in Parliament.
The Sunni deputies have divided among themselves, which has marginalized their role in electing the president. They were divided as follows: Ten supported Frangieh, seven supported Azour, three voted for Baroud, six voted for the New Lebanon, and one was cast in the name of the Army Commander.
However, in anticipation of Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri's call for unconditional dialogue and the position of the parliamentary blocs toward it, the spotlight must be shed on the task entrusted by French President Emmanuel Macron to his special envoy to Lebanon. Does it aim to revive the French initiative in a final attempt to save it without making any amendments? Or will it pay attention to the position of the Christian majority in rejecting Paris's attempt to impose Frangieh on the pretext that he is the closest candidate to ending the presidential vacuum?
It may be too early to speculate on what Le Drian will bring in his meetings with political leaders and some spiritual references without considering the international and Arab developments regarding the Lebanese file. This is particularly relevant given the heightened level of international concern regarding the Parliament's failure to elect a president and the anticipated reactions. Additionally, in its earlier form, the previous French initiative is no longer viable, as Le Drian will face a parliamentary shift that he cannot ignore.
The stumbling of the French initiative gives a new political push to the other members of the Quintet Committee (the United States, Saudi Arabia, France, Egypt, and Qatar) to adhere to the specifications they agreed upon in their approach to accomplishing the presidential election.
This will inevitably limit Le Drian's task to exploring positions in search of solutions to end the extension of the presidential vacuum.
He will then report back to Macron to act accordingly, especially as European sources confirm to Asharq al-Awsat that there is no need to set a date for a new electoral session unless it leads to the election of a president who is expected not to pose a challenge to any team.