Lebanon's dollar dance: Stability amid political turmoil

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2023-08-11 | 02:15
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Lebanon's dollar dance: Stability amid political turmoil
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7min
Lebanon's dollar dance: Stability amid political turmoil

If the scene of security breakdown witnessed in Kahale town two days ago, when a truck loaded with weapons overturned on the road, had occurred during a time when the exchange rate of the dollar was fluctuating, the dollar against the Lebanese pound would have reached record highs of 10,000 to 20,000 pounds per day.

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.
However, the Kahale incident, which occurred in the aftermath of dismantling the presidential, governmental, and legislative state, did not stir the exchange rate, nor did it experience any significant fluctuation.

This is a time of artificial exchange rate stability due to political and tourist-related factors. But to what extent can we rely on technical consensus-based factors to prevent a rise in the dollar's value?

Former head of the banking oversight committee, Samir Hammoud, told Nidaa Al-Watan that dollar trading is happening with money changers in the absence of banks.

He added that a substantial amount of dollars was injected by Banque du Liban at the end of July to maintain exchange rate stability. Additionally, control over the market is currently in the hands of money changers, possibly with support from political entities.

However, he pointed out that all these reasons are baseless because the Lebanese pound's exchange rate will not improve unless the pound becomes a savings currency, even partially, and that's currently unlikely.

Amid this evolving scenario, tourists present in Lebanon might not wait for their scheduled departures to leave the country. Those who have chosen Lebanon as the destination for their summer vacations might reconsider due to the Saudi and Kuwaiti travel bans and the confusing security developments unfolding.

Consequently, the season might end earlier than expected in early September when children return to school and expatriates leave their homeland.

Moreover, dollar reserves could be depleted, and its supply might dwindle. The anticipated political milestones, including presidential and subsequent governmental elections, might not come to fruition.

Thus, if efforts to fill the political void fail that month, could the dollar soar again, or would estimations falter as seen in previous predictions of its increase after the end of BDL governor's term and the halt of Sayrafa platform?"

The reason for the dollar exchange rate not increasing after discontinuing the Sayrafa platform is, as economists have interpreted, due to a political decision to suppress speculators from manipulating the market and the presence of tourists and expatriates in the country.

On another note, after the end of August, the dollar exchange rate will maintain its stability, as predicted by the economic expert Louis Hobeika to Nidaa Al-Watan, noting that "in the fall season, the supply of the dollar will decrease."

According to Hobeika, the reason is the declining demand in line with the slowdown of demand, a direct result of the unavailability of Lebanese pounds to purchase the dollar. Those who wanted to buy dollars took that step in advance; therefore, the exchange rate is not expected to change significantly.

Furthermore, Hobeika underlined that "the desire to purchase dollars has diminished among the Lebanese, and purchasing dollars due to fear has also decreased. Hence, the demand will not move upwards, and a balance will be achieved at the same exchange rate because the supply will be lower, and the demand will also be lower."

He indicated that this expected scenario might change if the political dynamics shift and speculators become active again, manipulating the exchange rate.

According to Hobeika, "The circulating and available Lebanese pounds for purchasing dollars will decrease due to withdrawing cash in pounds from circulation. Consequently, those who wish to buy the greenback will take that step, and practically, the demand for the dollar will decrease, returning to balance."

Likewise, another economic expert supported Hobeika's opinion regarding the possibility of the dollar exchange rate stabilizing during the coming month.

He told Nidaa Al-Watan that he expects the dollar exchange rate not to increase during the next month but to maintain its stability due to the technical measures and political decisions taken to stabilize the dollar's rate.

In the same context, a source explained to Nidaa Al-Watan during a discussion that the absence of a rise in the dollar exchange rate despite the suspension of the Sayrafa platform is attributed to political reasons.

The same sources said, "Politicians, in collaboration with the Central Bank deputies, have decided to calm the situation and suppress speculators or reach an agreement with them to control the dollar exchange rate. This indicates that the speculators are aligned with specific political entities."

Moreover, the stability of the exchange rate is also due, as is well known, to the increase in the dollar's supply in the market with the presence of tourists and expatriates in Lebanon, who are expected to remain until the end of the month. Additionally, it is attributed to the halt of the Central Bank of Lebanon from purchasing dollars from the markets.

However, the sources expressed concern about maintaining the current dollar exchange rate if the Sayrafa platform remains frozen, as the dollar exchange rate might resume its rise.

In a related context, the economic expert Patrick Mardini considered that exiting the Sayrafa platform should be gradual, not abrupt, and over the long term. The Council of the Central Bank might limit its operation in the first phase by withdrawing the salaries of public sector employees in dollars at the Sayrafa rate.

He confirmed that the amount of Lebanese pound cash circulating in the market has decreased to 60 trillion pounds. If this number can be maintained, preserving the dollar exchange rate without intervening in the market through Sayrafa would be possible.

Furthermore, he said any new printing of Lebanese pounds would increase demand for dollars in the market. If the central bank reduces the circulation of the pound or "freezes" it, the exchange rate can be controlled without Sayrafa.
 
As for the Central Bank's cash dollar injection into the market through lending to the government, this action should not be rushed, and legislating the injection of dollars via "Sayrafa" should be avoided. Simultaneously, the printing of the Lebanese pound should be halted; only then will the dollar exchange rate not increase.

Therefore, various means have been employed to freeze the dollar exchange rate amid political consensus, even during political paralysis.

However, this stability cannot last long if comprehensive and effective reform solutions are not adopted, allowing the economic momentum to regain its cycle.

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