American and French visits: International envoys set to arrive in Beirut in September

Two international envoys are scheduled to visit Beirut next month. The American envoy, Amos Hochstein, is expected in the first half of September, while the French envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, will follow in the latter half.

Preliminary sources suggest that Hochstein, a key figure in the demarcation of maritime borders between Lebanon and Israel, is arriving to address the issue of land border demarcation.

This article was originally published in and translated from the online Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Anbaa.

He might bring forward an American proposal to lay the groundwork for severe negotiations between Lebanon and the Israeli entity.

The purpose is to resolve the border-related dispute centered around the Chebaa Farms and eliminate it as a pretext for Hezbollah to justify its armed presence, often called "resistance." The ultimate goal is to ensure the liberation of Chebaa Farms, though this achievement could have drawbacks.

This development raises the question of how Hezbollah will respond if Hochstein succeeds in resolving this issue, just as he grew in addressing the maritime boundary dispute.

Moreover, what new justification might Hezbollah adopt to sustain its retention of weapons?

This American initiative comes at a time when the United Nations Security Council is engaged in discussions regarding the renewal of the mandate for the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) as disagreements persist between UNIFIL and the Lebanese government.

The government demands that the renewal be a replica of the previous resolution, without amendments or expansions to the force's mandate, and that the shift from Chapter VI to Chapter VII in the UN Charter, granting UNIFIL the authority to use force without prior consultation, be disregarded.

However, Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib's efforts become difficult in light of the firm stance of the United States, Britain, and France in favor of expanding UNIFIL's responsibilities independently and without coordination with the Lebanese army, the situation in the South appears to be entering a critical phase.

Turning to the French presidential envoy, Le Drian, his mission seeks to breach the impasse in the presidential arena.

Nonetheless, his efforts will likely face obstacles due to existing political lines that run in parallel and remain unaligned – the "Resistance" line and the "Opposition." 

Despite the challenges he has encountered and will continue to face, the French presidency is determined to reclaim its influence in Lebanon. The realism of France's approach lies in its efforts to broaden its engagement beyond the Maronite community alone and establish relations with various political and sectarian factions in the country.

On the presidential front, all eyes are on the discussions between Gebran Bassil and Hezbollah. Just as Bassil preserved a path for reconciliation with Hezbollah during their peak disagreement, he now works to maintain a return path with the opposition, especially since he has aligned himself with the nomination of Jihad Azour as a presidential candidate following his recent alignment with Hezbollah.

However, Bassil has not yet pledged his allegiance to his ally. Instead, he aims to convey that he possesses alternative presidential political options.

A source within the opposition informed "Al-Anbaa" that even if Bassil and his bloc join the "Resistance," they will not secure the two-thirds quorum required for a presidential election session. This implies that Frangieh and his supporters must attract more independent MPs to reach 86 votes.