Saudi Arabia has practically succeeded in bringing France back into the fold of the Quintet. The visit of the French envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, was seen as a departure from previous French efforts in the Lebanese arena, as it was interpreted as going against what had been agreed upon in previous meetings of the Quintet in Paris and Doha. Le Drian explicitly announced France's unwillingness to withdraw from the Lebanese file and declared the failure of its initiative. Therefore, France must realign itself with what has been agreed upon, especially in light of the Saudi-Qatari-US understanding and the need to reach a consensus settlement in Lebanon without one party dominating the other. This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper al-Modon.
In the meetings between Le Drian and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan, as well as with Nizar Al-Aloula, an advisor in the Prime Minister's office, and the Saudi Ambassador to Beirut, Walid Bukhari, the emphasis was placed on the necessity of pursuing a third candidate. Saudi Arabia's stance was clear: it, along with other countries, remained steadfast in its positions, while France changed its stance and abandoned the agreed-upon framework. After the February 6, 2023 meeting in Paris, France deviated from the agreement and pursued an unagreed-upon initiative, which included the principle of trading off the presidency of the republic and the presidency of the government. France failed to achieve its objectives. During the July 2023 meeting in Doha, it was agreed that the priority should be electing a president for the republic rather than engaging in dialogue, as the Saudis told the French. It was necessary to pressure the Lebanese to go to parliament instead of engaging in dialogue, which would be a waste of time. However, France changed its position again, going back to the idea of dialogue or discussions, which was a departure from the agreed-upon path. Sources suggest that Le Drian wanted to justify this move by claiming that it aimed to bring the Lebanese together and push them towards an agreement. However, he later confirmed that Paris was eager to work within the Quintet. He also pointed out that Paris could not declare the failure of its initiative, as it would have negative consequences both internally and externally, especially given its challenges in Africa. Additionally, it was conveyed to Le Drian that he could not reach specific points of agreement with the Quintet, only to have others within the French administration trying to obstruct or change the course. This difference in the management approach among the French is negatively affecting the French path, especially when Le Drian insists on the need to go for a third candidate while one French official is in contact with some Lebanese officials, informing them that Paris is still supporting Sleiman Frangieh. At that point, Le Drian intervened, stating that he was the one handling the file, speaking on behalf of President Emmanuel Macron. Le Drian will practically return to Beirut and hold bilateral meetings with parliamentary blocs, trying to push for consecutive and open electoral sessions. He will also attempt to secure a commitment from Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri in this regard. Arab diplomatic sources describe how France now needs to adjust its steps and get closer to the Quintet countries, especially in light of Qatar's actions, which could make progress at the expense of the French. Therefore, France does not want to withdraw from the Quintet and is forced to adjust its position. As per the agreement reached in the meeting, Le Drian is supposed to exert pressure on the Shiite duo to abandon Sleiman Frangieh and agree on a third candidate or consecutive open electoral sessions. Otherwise, sanctions may be necessary.