Unveiling the Chessboard: Hezbollah's Tactical Shifts and the Evolving Landscape of Regional Conflict

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2023-10-28 | 01:00
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Unveiling the Chessboard: Hezbollah's Tactical Shifts and the Evolving Landscape of Regional Conflict
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4min
Unveiling the Chessboard: Hezbollah's Tactical Shifts and the Evolving Landscape of Regional Conflict

The relative calm experienced in the southern Lebanese regions on Thursday and Friday does not mean that it is permanent. Hezbollah's decision to refrain from military operations against Israeli occupation sites is just a part of the broader context of the ongoing battle.

This is particularly evident in the framework of clarifying its scenes across the region, stemming from the distribution of roles among the Axis of Resistance forces.

Initially, Hezbollah directly engaged in the conflict, a necessity dictated by the battle and the messages the party intended to convey regarding its readiness and capabilities. However, the party's primary focus is on demonstrating integration on various fronts without fully opening them up.
 
This became apparent with the involvement of the Houthi rebels from Yemen, launching missiles.

Similarly, Iraqi factions carried out operations against US targets in Iraq and Syria.

Another phase will likely involve escalating activities in the West Bank as a new arena for draining and occupying Israeli forces as Hezbollah has worked to transform the northern front of occupied territories.

The axis showcased the breadth and diversification of responses and directly countering Americans rather than limiting responses to Israelis.

Hezbollah and Iran believe that advanced US technology provided to Israel, especially high-tech drones capable of detecting hidden cells and elements, was instrumental in causing significant losses to the party in Lebanon.

All of this remains within pre-established rules for the party. It chooses the timing for military operations based on the realities of the battles. Therefore, cautious and relative calm cannot be relied upon. It chooses the timing that he deems appropriate to carry out any military operation, according to what the facts of the battles require. Therefore, one cannot rely on cautious and relative calm.

Hezbollah remains the strongest military element in the axis, and its intervention, timing, rules, and limits are interconnected. The party's involvement may extend beyond the recent situation, aiming to change the balance of power in the battle, not limited to occupying Israelis but entering a new phase of defeating them in one or more battles.

According to some knowledgeable individuals about the party's workings, there are likely ongoing efforts within its military council to plan and strategize for the next stage. This is related to responding to previous attacks, avenging its martyrs, and addressing intentional fires set by Israelis to expose and restrict the party's movement. The second aspect involves resorting to new military mechanisms, extending beyond striking military sites along the Lebanese border to include a new target bank defined by the party.

Among the rules of engagement is the avoidance of targeting civilians by both parties. In the past, when Hezbollah sought to respond to Israeli operations, it preferred carrying out military operations in the occupied Shebaa Farms, considering it a military zone with no civilians.

Today, with settlements turned into military camps after civilian evacuations, the party has a broader margin to conduct military operations, some of which may be qualitative, extending beyond launching guided missiles towards military sites or vehicles.

Hezbollah was the first to threaten, signal, and conduct maneuvers towards crossing and controlling settlements.

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