There is concern that Lebanon's file may become a subject of negotiation rather than a negotiating partner.
While recent French diplomatic efforts have not yielded success in Africa or the Arab East, the current war in Gaza presented a new diplomatic challenge.
Despite this, counting on renewed French involvement in Lebanon is not about a specific initiative. Instead, it intersects with larger concerns expressed by capitals involved in the Lebanese situation, making the presidential election a crucial factor.
Regardless of the outcome of the Gaza war, Lebanon's future is now linked to the negotiations surrounding it.
Two intertwined points are discussed: first, the matter concerning Resolution 1701. Foreign confirmations and messages indicate that this resolution will be a central focus in the coming phase, surpassing routine renewals as in previous years.
The events since October 7th on the southern border have opened the door to a different phase, carrying Israeli and Western demands for a return to Resolution 1701 in all its facets, extending beyond a mere cessation of hostilities.
Furthermore, the intention is not to reach a new ceasefire through fresh negotiations but to implement the resolution fully, holding the state and the army responsible for full compliance, especially regarding the evacuation of the southern Litani region from weapons and armed individuals.
Lebanon has been informed that Israel, along with supportive Western capitals, will not accept overlooking the complete reapplication of Resolution 1701, continuing to deal with its northern borders with the risks observed over the past month and a half.
The second point is that any negotiations related to the international resolution will inherently intertwine with discussions about Lebanon's future and with who will have the key role in the regional negotiations.
Envoys have seriously begun working on outlining Lebanon's aspirations, as the post-Gaza period will directly impact scenarios related to areas adjacent to Israel.
The envoys acknowledge the danger of the repercussions of the Gaza war, which extends beyond military frameworks to readdress the future of the conflict between Israel on one side and all its adversaries on the other, including Hezbollah.
As Lebanon has been accustomed to receiving the effects of regional changes since the 1990s, from Iraq to Syria, it will not be protected from the outcomes of Gaza.
Therefore, the French encouragement is part of a broader movement to push Lebanon to be more effective in entering the depths of negotiations as a negotiating partner in regional developments.
However, its absence would turn it into a negotiation file between regional and international powers without influencing the trajectories.
Western interest, along with Arab capitals, focuses on activating this crucial aspect that would prevent Lebanon from being subject to any bargaining that might occur at its expense.
But there is growing concern that the repercussions of the Gaza war will create a new trajectory in the regional situation, starting gradually and expected to continue for a long time, involving several countries, each with its interests.
Foreign messages confirm that Resolution 1701 will be the main focus in the coming phase
Concerning Lebanon, the related files will gradually emerge. Automatically, the discussion about the presidential elections is brought back into the picture, along with an entire deal that could be based on the developments of the negotiations.
Consequently, external warnings intensified about the necessity of being vigilant about what the current war may shape, starting from the renewal of the implementation of 1701 to translating the form of negotiations and their participants. Lebanon could become an active player in any decision regarding its future.
The deterioration of the Lebanese situation on all fronts and in all institutions makes working on the presidential file the essential first step in facing the escalating collapse, which has become a pretext for negotiators to launch a comprehensive process around it.
However, the problem faced by France and other Arab countries concerned with Lebanese affairs is that Lebanon's absence has become obvious, to the extent that the fears accompanying the start of the Gaza war did not provoke reactions proportional to the warnings conveyed to officials from various factions.
And because there is no internal movement that matches the level of imminent danger and fear of repeating history as in previous episodes, France and Arab capitals are trying once again to bring Lebanon back into the circle of attention.
This comes with the prior acknowledgment that they do not rely on the Lebanese leadership to responsibly handle Lebanon's impending challenges.