France's warning to Lebanon: Presidential file’s crucial role in regional dynamics

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2023-12-21 | 02:26
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France's warning to Lebanon: Presidential file’s crucial role in regional dynamics
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France's warning to Lebanon: Presidential file’s crucial role in regional dynamics

A French diplomatic source told "Al-Joumhouria" that if the Lebanese presidential file is included in a regional settlement, it would be a loss for Lebanon in France's opinion. However, if Lebanon addresses the necessity of resolving the presidential file, it would be a critical player in any future political path.

This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Joumhouria.
It will not be a mere item in the settlement but will have a presence at the table, carrying weight and representing a specific position on the ground. This is deemed better for Lebanon as a state.

The source indicated that this is the reason behind the French shuttle diplomacy and insistence on resolving the file, warning the Lebanese that the train would move ahead of Lebanon if it did not address the issue.

The source added, "Be at the table, not on the agenda of the table; be players, not just items in an agreement."

In this context, the source revealed that French President Emmanuel Macron, originally scheduled to visit Lebanon during Christmas week, did not cancel his visit due to the precarious situation in the south but rather because of the absence of a president.

The source questioned, "Who will welcome President Macron, with whom will he meet, and with whom will he negotiate in the absence of a Lebanese president? What will he discuss with the caretaker government?"

In addition, the source noted that President Macron canceled his visit to Lebanon in the hope that Lebanese officials would realize the importance of missed opportunities due to the absence of a president.

Regarding Colonna's mission, the source stated that it has a regional dimension, specifically in southern Lebanon, focusing on implementing Resolution 1701.

The source stressed that France did not send Colonna to impose Israeli conditions on the Lebanese state, as some media outlets suggested. Instead, Colonna was in Tel Aviv before arriving in Lebanon, informing the Israeli side that they are responsible for not implementing Resolution 1701.

The source highlighted Colonna's emphasis on implementing Resolution 1701, directed at the Israeli and Lebanese sides. As for ongoing French efforts in Lebanon, they are serious attempts to reach a solution in all unresolved Lebanese files, with a primary focus on avoiding war for Lebanon.

Moreover, the source revealed French concerns about the possibility of a "major and serious war if Resolution 1701 is not fully implemented" and added that "There is French fear that a Gaza war might not wait for Colonna's efforts to conclude and could flare up at any moment, and things will get out of hand and withdraw into Lebanon."

The French source affirmed a general atmosphere in Israel conveyed by Minister Colonna to the Lebanese side, specifically to relevant officials, indicating that the situation is dangerous and that the luxury of time is unavailable.

For the French side, ensuring stability on the southern border is the current objective. Therefore, France is interested in implementing Resolution 1701. For this reason, Colonna continues to engage with everyone to return to the situation from 2006 to 2023, a relatively stable period, focusing on Israeli violations of Resolution 1701.

In addition, the source revealed "positive intentions" sensed by Colonna, starting with Lebanese officials who desire respect for implementing international legitimacy decisions, especially Resolution 1701.

On the other hand, the French diplomatic source acknowledges that "the issue will not be easy, but communication is continuing, and so is the French effort."

Regarding direct communication with Hezbollah, the French diplomatic source clarified that "Colonna did not have direct communication with Hezbollah during her visit. Communication with Hezbollah is ongoing through French diplomacy and the embassy, and there is no need for Colonna's direct communication."

The source added: "She meets with the main official representatives. As for the question that is always directed at French diplomacy, why talk to officials when the decision is in Hezbollah's hands? France acknowledges that Hezbollah exists but not overtly, and this ambiguity is what the party always plays on."

The source elaborated that everyone now knows there is no possibility of de-escalation in the south without a ceasefire and that the possibility of war is possible at any moment, contrary to what Lebanese officials are analyzing, which is that "if war were to break out, it would have broken out before now."

The source concluded, "Speculating about the intentions of the Israeli officials and their need for a military campaign in southern Lebanon for internal political and security reasons is impossible, which they may see as compatible with their interests! There is no truth to what is said about the possibility of the French force operating within UNIFIL, with its number reaching 700 soldiers on both sides of the southern border."

The French diplomatic source also underscored that the vacuum in sensitive positions in Lebanon, especially the presidential vacuum, concerns French diplomacy.

The source pointed out that although the presidential envoy, Le Drian, is mandated to follow up on the presidential file on behalf of the French president rather than Colonna, she certainly addressed this issue during her talks with Lebanese officials.

The source added, "Le Drian will take actions in this context in the region at the beginning of next year, starting from Riyadh and Doha before coming to Lebanon."

The French diplomatic source revealed that "the five countries previously emphasizing the need for electing a president to implement the reform program with the World Bank now see, including France, that electing the president has become a regional necessity."

Lebanon News

Press Highlights

France

Catherine Colonna

Lebanon

President

Election

South

Resolution 1701

Israel

War

Border

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