Quintet Committee's directives and French intervention: Navigating Lebanon's crisis

Amidst continued international interest in the developments of the Lebanese crisis, including the recent visit of the new French Foreign Minister Stéphane Séjourné, notable positions have emerged from the Quintet Committee, as reported by "Nidaa Al Watan" based on high-level Western diplomatic sources.

This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

These positions, embodied in the visit of the French diplomatic chief representing his country as one of the pillars of the committee, confirm three constants summarizing the current headlines of the Lebanese crisis, according to the sources:

Firstly, it is in the interest of the Lebanese to adhere to the "Quintet" and maintain it, as Lebanon is one of the few countries enjoying both Arab and international security networks.

Secondly, to prevent the escalation of war in the south by hastening the diplomatic solution by implementing Resolution 1701. Some steps will be taken to implement the resolution, starting with Hezbollah's retreat from the borders.

Thirdly, Lebanon is currently in a financial, economic, and political catastrophe, with institutions not functioning. Therefore, it is imperative to complete without delay the presidential process that the "Quintet" is pushing for. 

This direction towards the "Quintet" means that the option held by the resistance faction is impossible, and resorting to a third option arises from understanding among the Lebanese.

In a significant development in the mission undertaken by the US presidential envoy Amos Hochstein, the Axios website announced on Tuesday evening that the United States, along with four of its European allies, hopes to announce, in the coming weeks, a series of commitments pledged by Israel and Hezbollah to defuse tensions and restore calm to the Israeli-Lebanese borders, according to Israeli officials and a source familiar with the matter.

This development, according to Axios, is based on the model of the 1996 Grapes of Wrath understandings between Israel and Hezbollah, declared by the United States and other world powers to end the Israeli army operation in Lebanon at that time.

The sources stated that the parties will not officially sign the new understandings, but the United States and four European allies – the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Italy – will issue a statement detailing the commitments agreed upon by each side.

The Western powers will also announce economic benefits to bolster the Lebanese economy as part of the "sweetening" deal for Hezbollah.

The agreements are expected to focus on partially implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

The commitments will include both sides agreeing to cease hostilities on the borders since Hamas' attack on Israel last October.

The sources believe that the new understandings will not require Hezbollah to withdraw all its forces north of the Litani River, as required by Resolution 1701, but only to a distance of eight to 10 kilometers (five to six miles) from the Israeli border.

According to the sources, the agreements will be based on a "freeze" principle, meaning Hezbollah will not be forced to withdraw its forces but will only commit not to reintroduce them to the areas along the border where they were stationed before October 7.

Instead, the Lebanese army will deploy between 10,000 and 12,000 soldiers to the border area with Israel, according to the sources.

Israel will also have to take steps to defuse tensions. The United States has asked Israel to stop its military flights in Lebanese airspace. According to the sources, Israel did not refuse this request.

Under the proposal, Israel will also commit to withdrawing some forces – mostly reservists – that it has deployed along the border in the past four months.

The White House declined to comment, but a US official said, "Returning Israeli and Lebanese civilians to their homes and living in peace and security is of paramount importance." He added, "We continue to explore and exhaust all diplomatic options... to achieve this goal." 

The official added that some sources mentioned are " inaccurate," but he did not elaborate.

Israeli officials told Axios that Israel does not want to wage war on Lebanon, but they expressed concern that Hezbollah is planning a large-scale attack. It took some time to convince Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant that Israel is genuinely interested in a diplomatic solution.

A source familiar with the matter believes that the US thinks that Hezbollah is downplaying the seriousness of the situation on the borders.

He said, "Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah sent messages to the United States through intermediaries saying that he knows the United States controls Israel and therefore will prevent it from waging war against Lebanon."

The United States clarified to Nasrallah through Lebanese officials "that this is not the case" and warned against "making wrong calculations," according to the source.

Additionally, the sources said that the United States hopes that "a possible hostage agreement and cessation of fighting between Israel and Hamas in Gaza will facilitate a de-escalation of the situation along the Israeli-Lebanese border, but it is preparing to announce the understandings even if that does not happen."