Israel's Ali al-Taher hills claims face questions as Hezbollah threat escalates

Report by Petra Abou Haidar, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Israel announced on September 4 that it had established operational control over the Ali al-Taher hills in South Lebanon and killed several Hezbollah members there, following weeks of Israeli media coverage portraying the operation as a final victory over Hezbollah in the south.

However, four days after the announcement, Israel has yet to declare a final victory, raising questions over whether it has actually secured the Ali al-Taher hills and the network of tunnels believed to lie beneath them.

The continued Israeli military operations in the area, intensifying strikes around the Nabatieh district and the reported resumption of drone attacks targeting Israeli troops by Hezbollah have further complicated the picture.

As Israel expands its attacks, Hezbollah has maintained what it describes as a policy of “constructive ambiguity,” declining to disclose the situation at Ali al-Taher or confirm whether it is responsible for launching the drones.

The developments come at a particularly sensitive time for Israel, with parliamentary elections scheduled for October 27.

Hezbollah’s ambiguity presents Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with two possible scenarios, according to the report.

If Hezbollah denies launching the drones, Israel could portray the group as weakened, giving Netanyahu a political advantage ahead of the elections. If Hezbollah confirms responsibility, it would demonstrate that Israeli control of Ali al-Taher has not eliminated the group's operational capabilities and that battlefield control does not necessarily amount to a comprehensive victory.

In turn, this could provide Netanyahu with justification to continue military operations and appeal to Israel’s far-right electorate.

In either scenario, residents of southern Lebanon are bearing the consequences.

People familiar with the course of the conflict say the drone attacks targeting Israeli troops have so far failed to decisively alter the balance of the war or its overall conditions. They argue, however, that the attacks have contributed to what they describe as an increasingly aggressive approach by Netanyahu and Israel’s far right ahead of the elections, with the effects being felt in Nabatieh and surrounding areas.

The developments also raise broader questions over Hezbollah’s strategy. 

What does the group seek to achieve through its ambiguity? What is its objective in launching drones, if it is confirmed to be behind the attacks? Ultimately, is Iran behind either strategy as it engages in what analysts describe as a prolonged and measured confrontation with the United States, using multiple fronts as needed?