Strategic threats and political fallout: Examining the Gaza deal

The scenes of joy that exceeded the families of the prisoners at Hamas reached most Israelis but did not reach the leadership in Tel Aviv, which found itself forced to negotiate with the movement it describes as terrorist.

The difficulties faced by the leadership since the seventh of October will not stop on the day following the completion of the exchange deal.

It will be challenging to escalate hostilities and kill civilians in the Gaza Strip, not only out of fear for the remaining Israeli hostages but also due to the expected public pressure to release all the prisoners and the escalating international pressure toward a ceasefire.

As usual, the leadership did not stop at these difficulties but continued its threats, affirming that the army would continue battles in the southern towns of the Strip as planned.

At the same time, military reports have shown that the deal's repercussions will be military, political, and security-related, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be the weakest link.

This was reinforced by a poll published by Maariv newspaper, indicating that the government's policy toward the deal led to a decline in the coalition's seats in the Knesset from 64 to 49, while the opposition strengthened, raising its seats from 56 to 79.

However, according to the poll, Former Defense Minister Benny Gantz saw an increase in his popularity to 52 percent of Israeli votes, compared to Netanyahu's popularity collapsing to only 27 percent.

This situation will change the political and military game rules according to several scenarios.

Furthermore, Israelis do not expect to achieve the goal of the war by eliminating Hamas.

According to the Institute for National Security Studies, they warn that not fully resolving the prisoner issue may lead to a decline in society's support for military operations.

Moreover, continuing the fighting for at least two more months since the seventh of October will result in impatience among the evacuated residents.

All these scenarios will make demonstrations dominate the Israeli streets, leading to either new elections or a coup within the ruling Likud party, removing Netanyahu.

In both cases, the public will decide to end the war without evacuating the Gaza Strip from Hamas, preventing even Israel's ability to outline the plan for the day after the war.