US Envoy Amos Hochstein's visit to Lebanon: Uncertainty about pursuing regional stability

In an anticipated visit on Thursday, US envoy Amos Hochstein is set to meet with Lebanon's Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, Army Commander General Joseph Aoun, and others. 

The primary focus of discussions is expected to center around the issue of a ceasefire, which is Hochstein's repeated request, particularly in the southern border region near the Blue Line, along with concerns related to the disputed area of Ghajar. 

Hochstein's request aligns with efforts to reach an agreement addressing reservations along the Blue Line and violations in the Ghajar area in exchange for the return of settlers to the northern settlements. The envisioned deal includes commitments from both Israel and Hezbollah to adhere to UN Resolution 1701, with guarantees for the cessation of hostilities.

Insiders familiar with Hochstein's visit caution that the negotiations will not be as straightforward as some may anticipate, emphasizing the complexity of details involved in both the ceasefire and the broader agreement. 

Sources indicate that progress was nearly achieved during the Naqoura meetings over the summer regarding the Blue Line and Ghajar, where a preliminary agreement was reached. 
 
However, it fell through after leaks to Lebanese media, particularly Al-Akhbar newspaper, triggering Israeli criticism against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The price of compromise was perceived as merely removing Hezbollah's tents from the Kfarchouba Hills. The final resolution is expected to be solidified in the suspended tripartite meetings in Naqoura, which have been on hold since October.

Additionally, the matter of Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba Hills is reportedly not on the US and Israeli agenda, but it remains a fundamental demand from the Lebanese side. Lebanon asserts that these are occupied Lebanese territories, and any arrangement freeing them from Israeli control would be a decisive factor in securing stability and lasting tranquility along the southern border. 

The Lebanese Armed Forces are envisioned to be the sole legitimate armed forces in the southern border region. These diplomatic efforts unfold against the backdrop of ongoing conflict in the south, which Hezbollah consistently links to the continuous fighting in the Gaza Strip. 

There are no assurances from Hochstein that Israel might refrain from launching a comprehensive war against Hezbollah at any moment.