Escalation Risks: Perspectives from Israel and Lebanon Amidst Gaza Ceasefire Discussions

3^min

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine

It had barely been two hours since the UN Security Council issued a decision to cease fire in Gaza when Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant made a statement seemingly out of context: stopping the war in Gaza could bring a war closer on the northern front with Hezbollah.

This statement resonated in both political and media circles in Israel. According to Ma'ariv newspaper, the essence is that if Tel Aviv doesn't exert increasing military pressure on Hezbollah, it won't reach a political understanding that would push Hezbollah's threat away from the borders.

Lebanese government circles say they haven't received direct threats of any Israeli attack on Lebanon. However, ambassadors of major countries warn that if there's no agreement through diplomacy, the situation on the ground could escalate further.

Today, we await Israel's actions while calling on concerned countries to deter it from escalating its aggression and to return to implementing Resolution 1701, the same sources add.

Sources in the Lebanese Foreign Ministry, on the other hand, point out that initially, ambassadors conveyed an Israeli request for Hezbollah to withdraw its forces and equipment ten kilometers north of the southern border.

However, in recent weeks, they have been emphasizing the need to disarm heavy weapons in the area and prevent any armed presence, realizing that Hezbollah fighters are local residents who live in their homes, not in barracks. The sources acknowledge that a Western ambassador warned against the possibility of the Israeli army carrying out a military operation south of the Litani River.

Lebanese Foreign Ministry sources do not deny Lebanon's readiness to deploy more army units south of the Litani River. They say: this is a Lebanese proposal to Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati to deploy 5,000 additional Lebanese soldiers in addition to the four thousand already deployed there. However, we need to recruit and arm them, which requires tens of millions of dollars. Hence, we were waiting for the promised army support conference proposed by the French, but the US-French differences postponed the conference and consequently the approval of support.