Statistics of growing existential threats: Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon

Report by Lara El Hachem, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

The Syrian refugee crisis in Lebanon is often described as an existential threat, a designation rooted in alarming statistics.

With estimates of Syrian refugees ranging between one and two million, and 83% of them lacking legal residency, the numbers are inaccurate.

According to Lebanon's Health Ministry, the annual birth rate of Syrians has constituted 40% of the total births in Lebanon from 2012 to 2023.  

Consequently, it is projected that in 15 years, half of Lebanon's residents will be non-Lebanese, and half of Lebanese nationals will be living abroad, based on a study by the Lebanese Citizen Foundation.

Currently, Syrian refugees make up approximately 25% of Lebanon's population, according to a study published by Kulluna Irada. Notably, the majority of these refugees are young: 51.9% of the refugees are under the age of 20, compared to 39.6% of the Lebanese population under 20.

Given these figures, it is expected that within 25 years, the young Syrian refugees will dominate the workforce, potentially sidelining young Lebanese workers.

The economic advisor to the Prime Minister highlighted an even more concerning aspect: the economic burden of the refugee crisis. This burden is exacerbated by declining international funding for Lebanon's refugee-related expenses. 

As global crises continue to evolve, international support diminishes, further increasing Lebanon's economic strain.

This situation has already led to the complete cessation of aid for hundreds of thousands of Syrians, a trend likely to worsen. 

As Lebanon looks for sustainable solutions, attention is now focused on the upcoming Brussels conference, where Lebanese authorities hope to secure practical measures to address the crisis, moving beyond political theatrics.