Arab-American voters: Will Arab voters shift the balance in the US elections?

Report by Rawad Taha, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

Seven swing states will determine who reaches the White House in the upcoming U.S. presidential election: Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  

Starting with Michigan this state offers 15 electoral votes out of a total of 538, with a candidate needing 270 to secure victory. A fierce battle is underway between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. 

According to the latest statistics from 538, Harris leads Trump by just 0.7%. 

Michigan has historically been a Democratic stronghold, not lost by the party since 1992, except in 2016 when Trump won by a narrow margin of 0.23%, or about 10,000 votes. 

In 2020, Biden and the Democrats reclaimed the "Blue Wall" by increasing voter turnout from 63% to 71%, winning by approximately 3%. The Arab vote for Biden was a significant factor in this success, driven by dissatisfaction with Trump's policies toward Muslims and immigration.

However, today, the dynamics have shifted. 

With a substantial Arab community of about 300,000 in Michigan originally from the Middle East, including approximately 82,000 Lebanese, recent polls (YouGov - Arab Polls) indicate that 45% of Arab voters plan to support Trump, compared to just 43% for Harris. 

Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government, many Arab Americans seem ready to vote against their usual Democratic affiliation, expressing discontent with the Biden administration's handling of Israeli military actions in Gaza and Lebanon.

As the election approaches, the question remains: how will Lebanese and Arab voters cast their ballots, and will their choices impact the outcome for Trump or Harris?