Israel escalates ground operations in Lebanon, seeking to 'reshape' Hezbollah's power balance

Report by Edmond Sassine, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

Six weeks into Israel’s ground operations targeting villages along Lebanon’s southern border, the Israeli army has released videos showing the destruction of Hezbollah infrastructure, including tunnels and compounds. 

The army claims it has seized weapons and missiles and has destroyed entire neighborhoods across villages stretching from Ras Naqoura to Kfarkela.

The first phase of operations, reaching up to three kilometers deep without establishing Israeli army positions or military facilities, has not achieved Israel’s main objectives. 

Rocket fire on northern settlements has not ceased, nor have residents returned to the north. In fact, Hezbollah’s rocket launches have increased and expanded. 

Meanwhile, Hezbollah’s "supply lines" have continued targeting Israeli force gatherings, both near and far from the border.

Amid these developments and in the absence of a political agreement to end the conflict with Hezbollah, the Israeli chief of staff announced the approval of plans to expand ground operations in southern Lebanon, with the Maariv newspaper reporting the start of the second phase.

According to the newspaper, the goal of this phase is to dismantle Hezbollah’s ranks in the border regions, weaken its rocket capabilities, and increase pressure on the group regarding a settlement negotiation. 

Field details indicate that the 36th Division, covering the area from Ramyeh to Aitaroun, has started maneuvering toward Hezbollah’s second line of defense alongside the 91st Division.

Observers question whether this announcement is a political maneuver or if it will genuinely attempt to achieve new military objectives. 

They note that expanding operations five kilometers into Lebanon would require larger forces advancing through open terrain beyond the front-line villages, where forests and hills would raise the operational cost for Israel. 

A five-kilometer incursion would still fail to halt rocket launches or enable the return of settlers.

Should the Israeli army attempt an incursion toward Beit Lif, Tayr Harfa, Jebbayn, Yater, and northward to Aainata, Haddatha, Serbine, Kounine, At Tiri, Baraachit, Kfar Tebnit, Shkief, Yohmor, and Khardali, it would need to deploy tanks and heavy equipment rather than relying on small infantry units and special forces as in the first phase. 

This shift could provide Hezbollah with more opportunities to engage using Kornet missiles. 

Observers question whether the Israeli army will attempt to enter major strongholds like Khiam and Bint Jbeil in this phase or try to bypass these larger towns.

As of now, the Israeli army has not officially announced the start of a new phase, as it did with the initial one. Instead, the announcement was reported by Maariv and other Israeli media outlets, leaving open the question of whether these high-stakes moves are part of a push for a settlement aligned with Israeli demands.