Israel prioritizes Syria on security agenda amid growing threats

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Mariella Succar

Israel has placed the Syrian front at the top of its security agenda, reinforcing its forces deployed along the border with Syria. 

In an emergency security consultation, Israeli officials discussed the ramifications of developments in Syria and possible future scenarios, following an Israeli intelligence report. 

The report warned that the Syrian army is fracturing, and the spread of opposition groups, including ISIS, could pose a threat to Israel’s security.

The report also raised concerns over the ambiguous role of Russia and the perceived weakening of support for the Syrian regime. 

This issue was addressed by an Israeli delegation in Moscow, where talks were held on the issue of Russian nationals being held by Hamas.
Discussions indicated that the opposition is closer to expanding its control over Syrian cities, particularly after seizing key areas such as Aleppo and Hama. 

This shift has left Israel facing two troubling scenarios: the survival of the Syrian regime, with Iran and Hezbollah strengthening their positions in Syria, especially following recent strikes in Iran and Lebanon, or the advance of the opposition and its control over Syria, including groups hostile to Israel.
The meeting on Syria took place after the delay of a Security Cabinet session on Friday night, which was supposed to discuss a hostages swap deal. 

The session featured conflicting assessments on how to handle the emerging scenarios.
One scenario considered in Tel Aviv is that Syria could receive significant Iranian support, alongside the deployment of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon, with Russian backing, to repel opposition attacks, thus reinforcing Assad’s position. 

In response, Israel has already intensified its strikes on targets and crossings it claims are used for Iranian arms smuggling to Hezbollah.

Another scenario involves the loss of President Bashar al-Assad’s control over the country and his government.

Israel considers this the most likely scenario, particularly after concluding that Russia and Iran are not in a hurry to provide extensive military support to Assad. 

However, Israel has not yet formulated a strategy for this situation.

The worst-case scenario, according to Israeli assessments, involves the capture of Aleppo by armed groups and the seizure of military bases around the city, as well as a Syrian industrial-military complex southeast of Aleppo and Hama. 

The presence of heavy weapons and chemical weapons in these areas has raised Israel’s concerns, which are being addressed in current discussions.