Israel watches Iran unrest closely, favors covert role as protests grow

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian 

Israel continues to monitor developments in Iran and currently prefers not to intervene, despite its support for the protests amid U.S. threats.

Israeli officials say assessments indicate Tehran is unlikely to attempt to divert attention from domestic unrest by escalating tensions toward Israel. They also expect the protests to succeed and ultimately lead to a change in the regime.

While closely tracking developments, Israel views avoiding miscalculation as its primary concern at this stage. As it continues to link developments on the Iranian and Lebanese fronts, it is intensifying preparations for any potential emergency, even as new intelligence suggests Hezbollah is no longer Iran’s first line of defense.

Monitoring daily developments in Iran has led some Israeli officials to believe a decisive outcome will not occur unless the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps joins the unrest, a process that could take time.

Decision-makers have recommended that any intervention in Iran remain covert, stressing that intelligence agencies and the Mossad have the capability to operate there. 

This includes carrying out targeted assassinations against members of the ruling clerical establishment, leaders of the Revolutionary Guards, and officials responsible for suppressing protests and internal security forces.

Officials say such steps would provide a significant boost to protesters. Following at least moral support from U.S. President Donald Trump, the recommendations emphasize that covert actions by Israeli agencies could accelerate the success of the demonstrations.