Ramadan nears: Israel weighs timing of possible US strike on Iran

Report by Amal Shehadeh, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

With Ramadan expected to begin in about 10 days, Israeli officials are increasingly focused on whether a possible U.S. military strike on Iran would come before or after the holy month, according to assessments circulating in Tel Aviv.

The renewed speculation follows remarks attributed to Israeli army Chief of Staff Eyal Zamir, who previously spoke of a timeframe ranging from two weeks to two months for a potential U.S. strike, after what the report described as confidential talks in Washington.

In Tel Aviv, the prevailing view remains that a strike is likely, with some arguing that President Donald Trump's administration's push toward negotiations is largely intended to demonstrate that diplomatic efforts have been exhausted, thereby providing political justification for a broader military operation against Iran.

While the timing remains uncertain, the majority expectation in Israel is that any strike would take place after Ramadan, aligning with the longer, two-month window Zamir referenced.

According to the report, the calculations also take into account plans by the U.S. administration during Ramadan to convene a "Peace Council" in Washington on February 19. Trump announced the body as part of the second phase of his Gaza plan, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to take part in its launch.

The report noted that this political atmosphere contrasts with assessments by security and military officials familiar with U.S.-Israeli discussions, who anticipate that the Oman negotiations could succeed if they remain limited to Iran's nuclear program.

Regardless of timing, Israel has kept a high level of alert in place and continues preparations across multiple fronts, the report said.

As a second round of talks approaches, Israeli officials are also continuing to review and finalize war plans for Iran, moving toward formal approval.

According to the report, if any agreement between Washington and Tehran is confined solely to the nuclear file, Israel may still move to carry out its own strike targeting Iran's ballistic missile program — including missile stockpiles, storage sites and launch platforms — to undermine Iran's ability to manufacture such weapons.

The report added that Israeli officials do not believe their air force alone could achieve the goal of toppling Iran's ruling system.