Lebanon's presidential election: Balancing internal dynamics and external pressures

Without building on clear foundations or providing evidence, some political circles insist on the occurrence of the presidential election in the coming month of June, which is less than a month away.

The reason behind this is the absence of a candidate against Sleiman Frangieh due to numerous contradictions that hinder the unification of the opposition's stance.

 

It is said in close circles that Frangieh would be the most suitable candidate. They believe that the international community and members of the Quincy Committee will not allow any delays as they have threatened with sanctions.

However, the type of sanctions, targeted parties, and how the international community will classify the obstructing parties or prove their obstruction remains unclear, especially when each party is entrenched behind its choices and sees them as correct.

These situations are reported according to political references at a time when the proponents of a solution and the link to the presidential file confirm that efforts have not matured yet. It is still early to set dates considering the absolute rejection of Frangieh's nomination by Christians and their refusal to secure a session for his election.

Once again, the Amal-Hezbollah duo and their allies engage in vote calculations. The opposition group conducts consecutive meetings behind-the-scenes to narrow down the number of agreed-upon candidates or, in other words, to minimize differences in order to reach an agreement on a single presidential candidate.

Until the efforts of the Amal-Hezbollah duo can be seen and the opposition announces its candidate, the Speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, refuses to call for a close election session unless his ally secures 65 votes. This is a challenging task given the complexities associated with the absolute rejection by Christians and the ambiguity of the stance of the Progressive Socialist Party MPs and Sunni MPs.

Moreover, the Amal-Hezbollah duo discusses the possibility of securing 65 votes for their ally. 

At the same time, the opposition forces insist that they can secure 46 votes by relying on the Progressive Socialist Party and the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM). Both sides exaggerate these numbers, especially since FPM and the Progressive Socialist Party have not yet committed to any team.

The duo's movement and calculations focus on achieving two goals: securing the quorum for the election session and securing the votes to elect Frangieh.

Work is underway to prepare a roadmap and a list of names of MPs, distinguishing between those who can be swayed to vote or secure the session's quorum and negotiating behind the scenes.

Furthermore, the duo and its allies rely on regional and international movements that precede the Arab summit, starting with the anticipated meeting between Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman on May 17th.

Reliable sources confirm the existence of a high-level Syrian delegation heading to Saudi Arabia in preparation for this meeting.

In addition, the sources indicate the presence of Syrian-Saudi coordination regarding Lebanon, which will gradually unfold. There is a relative sense of relief as the circumstances are expected to bring Frangieh, whom the duo clings to, and in return, there is openness to discuss the names of potential candidates for prime minister, which was previously rejected.

The intended objective here is to return to the barter concept between the presidency and the premiership.

However, away from the internal dynamics, the reliance on external factors dominates the presidential scene. Frangieh's allies are based on the Syrian-Saudi convergence, the Saudi-Iranian dynamics, as well as the possibility of the shifting Sunni stance.

Nonetheless, Sunni parliamentary sources confirm that "several Sunni MPs avoid getting involved as a moderate party amid the current divisions" and insist on attending the election session "in principle without boycotting." As for the options, the direction will be towards "the option that serves the country's interest."

Between the Progressive Socialist Party and the FPM, the Amal-Hezbollah duo gets to work.

Nabih Berri has not given up hope on Walid Jumblatt, while Hezbollah continues to speak of ongoing lines of communication with the FPM's head, Gebran Bassil.

However, there have been reports of a forthcoming meeting between Bassil and a high-ranking member of Hezbollah's Liaison Officer, Wafiq Safa. Nevertheless, sources rule out the occurrence of such a meeting due to the absence of any developments that both sides can converge on. 

This implies that the meeting is not currently likely, as Bassil is still entrenched behind his rejection of Frangieh's nomination. It is not entirely ruled out, and it will only be far-fetched if the sources of both sides acknowledge knowledge of its timing.

Therefore, the matter requires an advanced step that may not be time before the Assad-Bin Salman summit, especially as the stance of the Saudi ambassador, Walid Bukhari. 

However, it relieved Hezbollah after he met with Frangieh but did not dispel the need for a more transparent stance to be adopted by Saudi allies in Lebanon to shape the serious starting point toward the presidential elections in Lebanon.