Unless something unexpected happens, a parliamentary session will be held on Wednesday that will not end with the election of a President.
This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper al-Akhbar.
What happened on Monday was new, represented by contacts that began between local forces and foreign capitals aimed at "stopping tensions" by postponing the session to a later date, under the cover of the Maronite Patriarchate and French support.
Speaker Nabih Berri told his visitors that adjourning the session could only happen if Bkerki and other parties requested it, which opened the door to contacts to prevent a significant political "explosion," just as former MP Walid Jumblatt initiated unannounced contacts to persuade a number of those concerned with non-escalation, linked to Wednesday's session.
However, question marks remained surrounding the scenarios that will be endorsed in the session. As Speaker of the Parliament, Berri accomplished his constitutional duty by calling for a new session to elect a president, devoting himself and other parties, blocs, forces of change, and independents to political maneuvers that could result in surprises.
However, the constant is that the session will not result in the election of a president, mainly since the opposition forces that intersected with the Free Patriotic Movement over the nomination of the former minister, Jihad Azour, do not aim to bring him to Baabda, as it does not seem to them more than a "billiard ball" that hits the nomination of the leader of the Marada Movement, Sleiman Frangieh, to negotiate a third option.
The second constant is that there is no second round of the session in which the team supporting Frangieh can use the right to break the quorum.
Between the two constants, the game remains confined to the points that the two candidates will win, and it is a game that the two parties of the conflict play with all political "weapons" to delineate the sizes that will determine the stage after Wednesday's "fight," in connection with the external developments that will take place in the countries concerned with the presidential file.
With the start of the countdown to the session, the pace of contacts accelerates towards the "grey" parliamentary blocs, which have not yet announced their position.
On Monday, it seemed that the attempts of the Azour-supporting team had succeeded in attracting some Change MPs with significant interests in the same team.
MP Paula Yacoubian is in charge of proposing Azour and negotiating his name. She presented the matter to her colleagues in a meeting, including MPS Firas Hamdan, Ibrahim Mneimneh, Yassin Yassin, Najat Saliba, Melhem Khalaf, and Cynthia Zarazir. Still, they refused to walk in with their colleague, MP Halime El Kaakour, who will be absent from the sessions due to travel.
According to al-Akhbar, their sources said that they "refuse to be part of any presidential project close to the parties," and "they are studying the idea of voting with a white paper or putting forward a third name, and they may announce a position before the session."
However, Yacoubian conveyed to stakeholders in the Azour team that she had succeeded in winning over Khalaf and Hamdan.
Sources told al-Akhbar that "the number of white papers is the tipper's egg in the next session and will reduce the difference between Azour and Franjieh, which disturbs Azour's supporters, who have launched a fierce campaign against those, accusing them of "serving Hezbollah's candidate."
According to the sources, "most of the Sunni deputies in the parliament decided to remain neutral and vote with a white paper, including the Sunni members of the Moderation Bloc, some of whom informed the Speaker of Parliament that they were out of alignment."
Those familiar with the recent "pointage" process pointed to "information that undermines the allegations of Azour's team about the latter's obtaining 61 votes so far because they count a number of Change and independent MPs with them."
While it has become inevitable that a number of deputies of the Strong Lebanon Bloc will not abide by the decision of the Free Patriotic Movement to vote for Azour, informed sources told al-Akhbar that "the Tashnag Bloc has decided that if it does not vote for Frangieh, it is certain that it will not go with Azour."
Forty-eight hours before the session, Azour broke his silence for the first time after announcing his candidacy by the opposition and the Free Patriotic Movement.
Meanwhile, the movement of external contacts regarding the Lebanese file was renewed. Diplomatic sources said that all countries concerned with the Lebanese file are awaiting the session and awaiting what will be issued by it to build on it, noting that the French envoy, Jean-Yves Le Drian, will start his duties in Beirut immediately after the session ends, which was what the French ambassador, Anne Grillo, told those she met.
It was also noted that US Ambassador Dorothy Shea left Beirut and may not return before Wednesday's session, which sources in contact with the embassy were keen to point out in response to words reported by more than one deputy that officials at the US embassy began direct contacts with some MPs to persuade them to vote for Azour.