Lebanese sources suggest that some of what is happening in Beirut is based on the agreements reached in Doha. They confirm that the Doha Quintet meeting was foundational, establishing a new path connected to Lebanese interests, distinct from the previous French-led approach.
However, reaching an agreement or settlement will take time and require favorable conditions, much like the process that led to the Doha Agreement in 2008. During that period, the tripartite committee worked for months before reaching an agreement.
The coordination and integration achieved in the Doha meeting imply that French-Lebanese initiatives will now align and coordinate with the four other countries involved, utilizing their diplomatic strength and internal and external relations.
Some speculate that this path may eventually lead to a consensus on electing the Army Commander as a compromise candidate, similar to the 2008 settlement. However, this remains a long-term process and post-Doha, diplomatic movements have intensified in Lebanon, especially in anticipation of the visit of French Presidential Envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, who will meet with various officials. The visit of the Saudi Ambassador Walid Bukhari to Dar Al-Fatwa also underscored their commitment to maintaining the Taif Agreement.
In parallel, there are indications that Doha is continuing its diplomatic groundwork internally and externally, ensuring that any future action is fortified and avoids the pitfalls that previous French-led efforts encountered. Cooperation and coordination between Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United States are emphasized, as these countries are expected to support the Army Commander if the trend leans toward that direction. Nevertheless, this process will take time, as the participants in Doha have tentatively set a new meeting date for September, two months from now.
To prevent a leadership vacuum in the army command, Western diplomatic sources anticipate increased movements in the Lebanese arena and between countries involved and interested in Lebanon's affairs. No one wants to witness a major collapse in Lebanon, similar to the situation with the Central Bank's governorship, where an agreement or ability to appoint a replacement was elusive, leading to a protracted crisis. As the term of Army Commander Joseph Aoun ends on January 10, 2024, significant efforts will be made in autumn to mature a solution before that date.
The catalyst for these movements will be the worsening financial and economic situation, particularly after the departure of Riad Salameh from his position. The negative repercussions on the currency and the political forces will intensify.
Additionally, there is a notable political whisper about entering a negotiating phase related to the agreement on various disputed border points in the south and their delimitation. This will be a crucial element in the negotiations and the commencement of oil and gas exploration. This next stage will require a President and a capable government to oversee all these developments, prompting increased international efforts toward reaching an agreement.