As closed doors persist at various local and national levels, whether presidential or financial, all the speculated deadlines for solutions seem illogical as long as cases of defiance accumulate within opposing forces of rejection.
This article was originally published in and translated from the online newspaper Al Anbaa.
This places the fate of the French initiative in a precarious position, potentially leading the country towards various outcomes, a scenario cautioned against by the Acting BDL Governor Wassim Mansouri, who renewed the call for necessary reforms to save the nation.
This call has been persistently echoed by the Progressive Socialist Party, aiming to avert the worst.
In this context, sources closely following the efforts of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian noted via Al Anbaa deep disparities and disagreements between him and his counterparts within the Quintet Committee.
This was alluded to by Walid Jumblatt in his recent press statement.
These sources highlight a lack of alignment in ideas between Le Drian and other committee members regarding his vision for resolving the presidential crisis. Other members uphold the decisions of the Doha meeting, especially concerning the president's specifications.
These sources draw a connection between the impending visit by US mediator Amos Hochstein, scheduled for early next month, and Le Drian's expected visit in the second half of September.
This potential overlap could have positive implications for the domestic situation despite the celebratory nature of Hochstein's visit, commemorating the beginning of TotalEnergies' drilling activities in Block 9.
This perspective was also highlighted by oil and gas governance and geopolitics expert Laury Haytayan, who told Al Anbaa that the visit is part of the agenda for demarcating maritime borders and celebrating the commencement of drilling in Block 9.
She mentioned what was said in 2018 regarding the discussion of moving towards demarcation and encouraging petroleum activities upon signing the contract, despite the existence of a disputed portion in Block 9.
An agreement was reached to operate outside that area. In 2020, attention to this portion waned, and the focus shifted to the entire border demarcation process with Lebanon. At that time, Lebanon had accepted the contract terms, conditional upon TotalEnergies' return, and this achievement is credited to the French and Americans.
The land demarcation, however, appears more complex, according to Haytayan, as it involves a "political matter related to the Shebaa Farms and Kfarchouba Hills."
This necessitates understanding with the Syrians, who might bring up the issue of the Golan.
However, the democratic administration of the United States is not ready to engage in dialogue with Syria, so the topic of land demarcation has received little attention despite being mentioned in the framework agreement discussed by Speaker Nabih Berri, which touched on the interrelation of the land and maritime tracks.
As the dimensions of the American visit and the French return become clearer, local stakeholders find themselves further embroiled in a time-wasting game, squandering every potential opportunity to avoid more significant risks for the Lebanese people.