Lebanese Presidential Prospects: Navigating Dialogue, Decentralization, and Diplomatic Initiatives

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2023-09-08 | 00:47
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Lebanese Presidential Prospects: Navigating Dialogue, Decentralization, and Diplomatic Initiatives
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7min
Lebanese Presidential Prospects: Navigating Dialogue, Decentralization, and Diplomatic Initiatives

The presidential development highlighted by "Nidaa al-Watan," which involved a meeting between the head of the " Loyalty to the Resistance" bloc, Deputy Mohammad Raad, and Army Chief General Joseph Aoun, has garnered media attention. 

In new information, it has been revealed that the meeting took place a week ago at the residence of retired General Didier Rahhal in Hazmieh, who is close to General Aoun. 
 
The meeting followed shortly after the visit of Amos Hochstein, senior advisor to the US President for energy affairs, to Lebanon last week, where he also met with Aoun during a dinner.

"Hezbollah" refrained from delving into the topic of the meeting, as indicated in the statement issued yesterday after the regular meeting of the bloc chaired by Raad himself. The statement contented itself with confirming "the party's openness to any realistic dialogic effort or initiative that contributes to providing opportunities for reaching a conclusion to the presidential vacancy."

What if the dialogue initiated by "Hezbollah" regarding General Aoun's entry into the presidential race continues positively?

Well-informed sources answered this question through "Nidaa al-Watan" by saying: If the contacts proceed to bring General Aoun to the presidency, then there will be a task ahead for the "Shiite duo" to withdraw the nomination of the head of the "Marada Movement," Sleiman Frangieh, from the presidential race. 

It will also be on "Hezbollah" to convince its ally, the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement" Deputy Gebran Bassil, to accept the nomination of the Army Commander for the presidency. However, Bassil remains strongly opposed.

In the assessment of these circles, if the nomination of the Army Commander proceeds, Speaker Nabih Berri will handle the settlement of Frangieh's situation, especially since he was the first to nominate him for the presidency. Part of this settlement involves Frangieh pledging to appoint his son, MP Tony Frangieh, to the new government, which opens up a political path for his future presidential candidacy.

As for the dilemma of Bassil, which appears to be a difficult settlement for "Hezbollah," it will be left to Qatar to decide, as it is actively working on the presidential issue with a prior position supporting the option of nominating the Army Commander.

Meanwhile, during Bassil's appearance at the dinner of the "Batroun Judicial Body," he refrained from commenting directly on Raad and General Aoun, opting for generalities. 

He said, "One party wants to impose a president on us who lacks representation, popular legitimacy, and a sufficient number of deputies. It insists on its stance, which prolongs the void and only talks about sharing power and our interests after six years... Another party wants to impose on the first party a president who defies it, lacks a sufficient number of deputies.”

In parallel, it is learned that the joint technical committee between the "Free Patriotic Movement" and "Hezbollah" will hold its first meeting at 10 a.m. today. 

This committee is responsible for following up on discussions about expanded financial decentralization, one of Bassil's demands for a presidential understanding with "Hezbollah." The committee includes from the "FPM" Deputy Alain Aoun and Antoine Costantin, and from "Hezbollah" Deputy Ali Fayyad and Abdel Halim Fadlallah.

It is expected that a parallel committee will be formed to discuss the issue of the credit fund, and it is likely to include Deputy Cesar Abi Khalil from the "FPM."

In addition, this joint dialogue is still in its early stages, as Bassil made it clear during the political body meeting of the "FPM," which was held last Tuesday evening. He informed the participants that he responded clearly to "Hezbollah's" question about the identity of the candidate he would vote for if Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri called for an electoral session in the coming weeks, saying that he would vote for Jihad Azour.

This indicates that the joint dialogue between Bassil and the opposition forces has not yet derailed the presidential dialogue. 

It is still long, with the direct dialogue led by the head of the "Free Patriotic Movement" focusing on the broad demands announced by him, namely decentralization and the credit fund. 

The two committees will be responsible for formulating the agreed-upon articles, as well as those that differ. Information suggests that the discussion began with a proposal from Ziad Baroud, especially since "Hezbollah" opposes expanding the concept of decentralization, whether financially, legislatively, or security-wise. 

For example, the FPM team demands that the percentage of local administration fees be raised to 25% of the overall state revenue, while "Hezbollah" prefers it not to exceed 7% significantly. In addition, "Hezbollah" objects to the municipal police being armed.

Thus, it becomes clear that "Hezbollah" seeks to agree on a project that is hollow in its content, to resemble administrative decentralization with limited powers. 

This contradicts the concept of expanded financial decentralization advocated by Bassil, who markets it as an achievement for the Christians if achieved.

While awaiting the crystallization of this new aspect of the presidential file, it was announced that the special presidential envoy to Lebanon, Jean-Yves Le Drian, will arrive in Beirut next Monday in a new attempt to resolve the ongoing political crisis in Lebanon for the past ten months.

Sources close to Le Drian told the agency that he "will be in Lebanon on Monday," without further details about his agenda. It is worth noting that his upcoming visit to Lebanon will take place about nine days before the meeting of the Quint Committee for Lebanon, to be held on the twentieth of this month at the foreign ministers' level in New York. His meetings are expected to take place on Tuesday and Wednesday before he departs Lebanon next Thursday.
 

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