Hezbollah's balancing act amid escalating tensions on the southern border

Hezbollah is currently hesitant to engage directly in clashes with Israel, possibly leading to a deteriorating military situation in southern Lebanon.

Therefore, Hezbollah continues to abide by the rules of engagement, as demonstrated in the recent operation that targeted Israeli positions in the occupied Chebaa Farms.

This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.

However, Hezbollah seems to be pursuing a different strategy involving Palestinian factions allied with them carrying out military operations from southern Lebanon. Hezbollah distances itself from these operations and, for example, places the Islamic Jihad's Al-Quds Brigades at the forefront.

Nevertheless, security sources have noted that such groups cannot carry out operations independently without coordination with Hezbollah, which possesses comprehensive data on southern Lebanon's geography and knows the points from which it is easiest to attack Israeli positions and patrols—something that Al-Quds Brigades does not have. The danger lies in this operation occurring in the area covered by United Nations Security Council Resolution 1701.

This operation may be followed by others, including missile launches from other areas in the south, also potentially within the context of Resolution 1701, with the presence of the Lebanese Army and international forces.

The situation in southern Lebanon could deteriorate at any moment, even as Hezbollah and the Israelis try to avoid it.

The major absentee in this equation is the Lebanese government, which should have convened its cabinet and declared Lebanon unprepared to enter any regional war. It should have called on all relevant Lebanese parties, including Hezbollah, to prevent the country from being dragged into such a conflict. The Lebanese government should also have prevented Palestinian factions from moving along the border and conducting military attacks.

This Lebanese action, which should occur, is by no means against the Palestinian people.

However, the Lebanese people cannot bear the burden of another war on their land, as they are already grappling with political, economic, and living crises and severe divisions.

The upcoming war will only exacerbate these issues. It is worth noting that the Lebanese people have already paid a high price for the Palestinian cause, as it was one of the reasons behind the war that erupted in 1975.