As the Israeli war on Gaza enters its fourth week, the Hebrew press continues to analyze Hezbollah's intentions to expand the conflict and open a northern front, amid demands from former Israeli officials to respond more forcefully to the party's provocations and attacks on military sites.
Three Scenarios
The Israeli newspaper "Israel Hayom" analyzed three scenarios, emphasizing that if Hezbollah's Secretary-General, Hassan Nasrallah, receives an order from Tehran to join the conflict, he will execute it. The analysis acknowledges Nasrallah's heavy responsibility for the situation in Lebanon, especially with the displacement of tens of thousands of people in the south and pressure from various political forces in the country to avoid joining the war to prevent the complete destruction of the country.
This article was originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper al-Modon.
The newspaper outlines three scenarios presented by Kamal Kharrazi, the former Iranian Foreign Minister and advisor to the Supreme Leader of Iran, regarding the future of the war in Gaza. The first scenario involves the escalation of the conflict into a regional war, which could escalate into a global war. The other two scenarios involve the continued fighting between Hamas and Israel until one side eliminates the other or a prolonged war where each side continues to receive support from external actors.
At present, the Iranians seem to lean towards the third scenario, according to the newspaper. This involves continuing support for Hamas while Hezbollah harasses Israel in the north, within the limits of limited regional escalation, without engaging in a broad confrontation. Reports of Iran attempting to smuggle precision weapons to Hezbollah in Syria, transported on civilian planes landing at Syrian airports, may support this interpretation.
Timing of War Expansion
The Israeli newspaper "Jerusalem Post" published a study by the American "Caspian Policy Center" on the Gaza war, addressing the possibility of Hezbollah's greater involvement. The center suggests that Iran has not built up Hamas over the years, leaving it isolated to deal with the Israeli counterattack. Therefore, if Hezbollah decides to strike with force, it is likely to happen during Israel's ground attack on Gaza, at a time most favorable to Hezbollah, not necessarily Hamas, citing the 2006 war as evidence of the success of this strategy.
The American center emphasizes that it would be a mistake to judge Hezbollah based on its performance in 2006 because it has significantly expanded its arsenal, posing a significant threat even to U.S. aircraft carriers with its anti-ship missiles.
Two Factors Preventing War in Lebanon
Regarding the factors preventing the party from using excessive force on the northern front against Israel, the American center discusses two main aspects: Hezbollah's position in Lebanese politics and its role in the broader Iranian strategy.
The center states that the current war, while Lebanon is facing a severe economic crisis, would only deepen the existing economic crisis in the country. Therefore, Hezbollah prefers to remain politically strong and popular among the Lebanese public rather than escalate internal tensions.
The second factor is Hezbollah's role in the broader Iranian strategy. The party serves as a crucial pillar in Iran's strategy in the Middle East, with its vast arsenal posing a significant threat to Israel. Using this firepower in the current conflict in Gaza would mean depleting it as a deterrent, neutralizing its role as a single-use deterrent that can cause significant damage to Israel and the United States but can only be used once before requiring a long time to regain its strength.
Hence, the center predicts the continuation of skirmishes in southern Lebanon as an attempt to keep the specter of Iranian intervention alive and simultaneously distract Israel in its war on Gaza.
Call for a Stronger Response
Simultaneously, former Israeli Defense Minister and leader of the "Yisrael Beiteinu" party, Avigdor Lieberman, called for stronger action against Hezbollah in Lebanon. He warned that the party's actions indicate its intention to expand hostilities against Israel. Lieberman criticized assessments by Israeli analysts and officials suggesting that Hezbollah is currently only engaged in symbolic fighting to support Hamas and its war against Israel.
He added that “we cannot wake up one day to a heavy barrage of rockets heading towards Haifa and Tel Aviv launched by Hezbollah forces on the border. We will not be able to end the war without pushing Hezbollah beyond the Litani River, and it is unacceptable for residents of Lebanese villages near the Israeli border to return to their homes soon."
International Pressure and Party Response
In turn, the American newspaper "The Washington Post" discussed the possibilities of war expansion from Lebanon. In an extensive report, it quoted a senior Lebanese official, speaking on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the discussions, saying that “all Western countries talk to us, send their ambassadors, and tell us that Hezbollah should not enter the war. We respond by saying that the United States should press Israel to avoid a major ground invasion in Gaza, which could push Hezbollah to intensify its clashes with the Israeli army on the border."
"What we say to Hezbollah as a government is that we cannot afford a war. The party's response is as follows: we understand you, but we also cannot accept the fall of Hamas," he continued.