Hezbollah's threats and Israel's dilemma: Navigating the new military reality in the face of escalating tensions

Press Highlights
2023-11-11 | 00:30
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Hezbollah's threats and Israel's dilemma: Navigating the new military reality in the face of escalating tensions
Hezbollah's threats and Israel's dilemma: Navigating the new military reality in the face of escalating tensions

It is expected that the southern attacks will occupy a significant space in the speech of Hezbollah Secretary-General Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah. The fall of martyrs among civilians will not pass unnoticed. 

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

This event may impose new rules of engagement and serious language in dealing with the situation. The southern front is subject to the nature of the "field conditions," reducing its intensity or flaring up due to the impact of the Gaza war.

More than before, the southern borders have witnessed fierce clashes. 

Hezbollah has intensified its operations against Israeli sites, attacking more than one location in a single day, causing severe damage to Israel, which is wary of expanding Hezbollah's involvement in the Gaza war.

Israel has feared from the beginning the movement of the southern front on a large scale. Western messages in this regard have not stopped, with the latest coming from US envoy Amos Hochstein, who emphasized his country's interest in maintaining calm on the borders. 

It seeks to ensure that the truce reached in Gaza will be effective on the southern front.

Hochstein did not speak about Hezbollah's confrontations or object to them as much as he opposed the attacks by Palestinian factions. 

He explicitly stated that his country does not want Lebanon to engage, in any form, in the war, emphasizing the importance of continuing to adhere to the effects of Resolution 1701, which preserves the achievement of demarcation. 

He also pledged to ask Israel to commit to a truce on the southern front.

Following its attack on a civilian car in Aainata, resulting in the martyrdom of three children, their grandmother, and the injury of their mother, Israel rushed to justify its hostility by telling UNIFIL that it was unaware of the presence of children in the car. 

On that day, Israel declared its highest state of alert, fearing a response from Hezbollah. 

It is not just a detail that Israel, through UNIFIL, apologized to Hezbollah for what it considered a mistake that would not be repeated.

In any form, the United States does not want to escalate the southern front and puts pressure on Israel not to expand the boundaries of its aggression on Lebanon. 

However, Israel has not adhered to this point, as evidenced by its airstrikes and shells targeting inhabited villages, not to mention civilians and a hospital in Meiss El Jabal on Friday. 

The escalating context indicates that Israel has surpassed the agreed-upon rules of engagement and is now subject to new rules due to the rapidly evolving developments in the south and the "inflamed" front.

The course of the southern arena clashes warns of a new military reality in the ongoing confrontations. Like the Gaza confrontations, it has introduced a different reality to the war against the Israelis, changing the rules of the international game. 

Israel has "departed" from the concept of being an undefeated state. The reality of the confrontation between it and Hezbollah has changed, and it is anticipating the threats of its Secretary-General and avoiding going to war with it. 

Israel has shown that it is unable to tolerate a war against Hamas in Gaza and against Hezbollah in Lebanon.

The international community is no longer indifferent to Israel; it also feels involved and is looking for a way out of what the world is witnessing in Gaza. 

Decision-making countries have entered into intensive security and political efforts "in a serious attempt to achieve a deal to release prisoners in exchange for a temporary truce and to pass aid to Gaza," according to diplomatic sources. 

They indicate that the two sides of the confrontation want to find a way out of the current situation. Israel intends to release the captives, while Hamas wants to "catch its breath," and the third party is the US, which wants to focus on its elections under changing circumstances. 

When the Gaza truce is achieved, its impact will inevitably extend to the southern front, even without an agreement, as there is no reason to increase tensions.

In the face of the escalating confrontations on both fronts, the utmost aspiration of those involved is to reach a humanitarian truce. 

Achieving it will not negate the new reality and the transformation that has occurred, imposing new rules of engagement with Israel. 

Israel, which started its war under the banner of eliminating Hamas, then retreated to the ceiling of releasing captives, has realized that such a goal has been beyond reach for over a month, witnessed by the Arab and Western world, and has not been achieved. 

The reality of the war, with its developments, will impose itself on the Arab summit and on the expected speech of Sayyed Nasrallah, who is likely to raise the level of his threats to Israel primarily.

Lebanon News

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Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah


Rules Of Engagement




Amos Hochstein

Resolution 1701







Arab Summit

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