Middle East dynamics: Redrawing the regional map after 'Al-Aqsa Flood'

Political discussions among global decision-makers regarding a ceasefire in Gaza and the exchange of civilian prisoners between Hamas and Israel have surpassed mere diplomatic exchanges. 

The focus has shifted to the region's future, the roles of regional powers, and the boundaries of influence each entity holds. This transformation is particularly evident in the "new" Gaza.

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa Al-Watan.

Amid the rearrangement of the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East, political sources have paused at the site of the ancient Arab system and its role in Turkey and Qatar's efforts to strengthen the position of the "Islamic Movement." 

Simultaneously, Iran's growing influence through the Houthis in Yemen, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq, the Assad regime in Syria, and Hezbollah in Lebanon adds complexity to the regional dynamics, along with the role of Hamas in Palestine.

In an attempt to understand the repercussions of the events following "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood," attention is drawn to specific facts that have altered the traditional narrative in the minds of both Lebanese and global audiences:

1- Global public opinion divide: The first segment, rooted in Western countries (albeit undergoing a gradual shift), perceives Israel's hostile actions as a necessary reaction to Hamas targeting Israeli civilians on October 7. 

Conversely, a significant Arab-Islamic current views the roots of the war as tracing back to May 15, 1948—over 75 years ago. "Operation Al-Aqsa Flood" is seen as a natural milestone in the long struggle, solidifying the resistance in the minds of generations of Palestinians deprived of their rights for decades.

2- Iran's narrative collapse: Iran's narrative, boasting control and presence in four Arab capitals, has suffered a setback, with its indirect support for Hamas diminishing on the frontline. Despite Iran's claims to liberate Palestine to garner Arab support, its actions seem to focus on side engagements rather than the central goal of freeing Palestine. 

3- US military strength display: The recent events underscore the surplus military strength of the United States, effectively steering resistance forces and regulating the ambitions of major countries aspiring to form alliances against US policies in the region. China's absence from the events in the region, and thus its inability to forge an alliance with Russia and Iran to counterbalance US influence, further consolidates US dominance.

4- Emergence of opportunities: Amidst the collapse of the Iranian narrative, there is an opportunity for Arab countries and Palestinians to fill the void by reclaiming the Palestinian cause. This involves crafting an Arab-centric framework, liberated from Iranian influences, and working towards regional peace by endorsing the two-state solution in Palestine. 

Until the repercussions of the war on the region became clear, after its expansion outside the Gaza Strip was ruled out, observers recorded an indirect role for Iran that was in Israel's interest by limiting the ignition of the fronts. This constitutes a possibility for it to reserve an advanced position during the reformulation of the map of influence in the region unless the Arab countries intend to restore the Arabism of the Palestinian cause.

It is an opportunity for Lebanon's official position to bridge gaps with Western nations, especially in light of the upcoming visit of Pope Francis to Abu Dhabi on December 1 and his meeting with Arab and Islamic leaders, as well as his anticipated meeting with Sheikh Al-Azhar, Dr. Ahmed Al-Tayeb, and leaders participating in the COP28 conference in Dubai on December 3.