Hezbollah-Israel escalation: Unchanged rhythm amid diplomatic efforts

The rhythm of confrontations on the southern border has not changed from its usual basis since it erupted on October 8th last year.

This article was originally published in and translated from Lebanese newspaper Nidaa al-Watan.

However, Thursday was marked by Israel targeting the "Islamic Health Society," affiliated with Hezbollah, leading to the death of paramedics.

In response, Hezbollah shelled the Kiryat Shmona settlement north of the Israeli state on the border with Lebanon with dozens of rockets.

This escalation occurred while the US presidential envoy, Amos Hochstein, was holding talks in Beirut, seeking a "diplomatic solution" to end the escalation on both sides of the borders between Lebanon and Israel. This solution is expected to assist in returning displaced persons to their homes in the border areas in both countries.

How was the overall situation, including the contrast between the southern field and the US diplomatic movement?

Sources told Nidaa Al-Watan that the essence of what Hochstein proposed is based on three points:

First, the direction in Gaza is to cease hostilities while preserving selective warfare.

Second, it is not in Lebanon's interest to continue heating the southern front as long as things are heading toward the beginning of a solution at the Palestinian level.

Third, Hochstein proposed a return to the cessation of hostilities between Lebanon and Israel, with Hezbollah retracting 8 kilometers from the border, allowing the return of displaced persons on both sides of the border.

Furthermore, this withdrawal is an entry point to propose a solution to the points of conflict on the land borders. At the same time, efforts are underway to deploy 10,000 Lebanese soldiers to work with UNIFIL forces to implement Resolution 1701.

However, sources said negotiations on the land borders would not be through the tripartite military committee but through rounds of indirect talks based on exchanging documents, proposals, and shuttle rounds between Beirut and Tel Aviv, to be conducted by Hochstein himself.

Moreover, the sources mentioned that Hochstein briefed those he met on the stance of Hezbollah: "The first step must be to stop the aggression on Gaza, and any initiative outside this framework is not serious and aims to cover up Israeli crimes. When the war stops, Hezbollah will support the state in the issue of the land borders, not as an alternative to it."

Before the arrival of the US envoy in Lebanon, the American online site Axios reported that the White House announced that Biden's chief advisor "will continue efforts to calm tensions along the Israeli-Lebanese border."

The site added that Hochstein's talks with the Speaker of Parliament Nabih Berri, caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, and other senior officials aimed to "push discussions on how to reach agreements that would restore calm along the border."

In the same context, three Israeli officials said that Hochstein emphasized in his talks in Tel Aviv that once the Israeli army fully transitions to low-density operations in Gaza, it will help calm the situation in Lebanon. He also suggested that Israel issue a public statement announcing the transitional phase.

The Israeli officials said that Hochstein told Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu that once the clashes between Israel and Hezbollah stop, he wants to start indirect negotiations on the land borders, similar to the talks that led to the agreement on maritime borders last year.

They also added that Israel does not object to conducting negotiations on the land borders with Lebanon.

In this context, the US State Department said in a Thursday statement that Hochstein met with the Lebanese government and military officials in Beirut, clarifying that his meetings aimed to push discussions to restore calm along the "Blue Line." It affirmed that the United States clarified that it "does not support the extension of the conflict to Lebanon."

However, it seems that the time has not yet come for Hochstein to start the mediation that reorganizes the land borders between Lebanon and Israel.

This means that the return of the US envoy to the two countries is still pending, without knowing how the war in Gaza will end.

So, will the southern confrontations remain within the "known constraints," or is their escalation possible?