Berlusconi teams up with Northern League for elections, analysis

Former Premier Silvio Berlusconi announced a deal on Monday with the Northern League - his fractious coalition partner in three governments - to jointly run in Italy's election next month.    

While leaving open the question of whether he will run himself, Berlusconi underlined his ambitions for the deal reached overnight at his villa near Milan by saying: "Habemus Papum," - the Latin phrase for "We have a pope."    

A return to power for the 76-year-old Berlusconi, a man convicted just months ago of tax fraud and likely facing two criminal verdicts in the coming weeks, may seem incredible to observers abroad.      

Opinion polls at home, however, have seen Berlusconi's conservative party gaining since he pulled its support for Premier Mario Monti's technical government last month.   

The February 24-25 national election is shaping up into a race with Monti in the center, Berlusconi to the right and Democratic Party leader Pier Luigi Bersani on the left, along with a movement founded by comic-cum-political agitator Beppe Grillo.  

The conservative coalition has been polling second to Bersani's center-left forces.       

While the Northern League has ruled in coalition with Berlusconi three times, the relationship has been rocky at best - with the League being behind the downfall of previous Berlusconi governments.    

Berlusconi did not refer to reluctance among some Northern League proponents to back him in the post.      

"I am the leader of the coalition and I will decide with the other parties involved, in the case of victory, who to propose to the head of state as a candidate for premier," Berlusconi said.    

Franco Pavoncello, President of John Cabot University, meanwhile explained the rationale behind the Northern League's support of Berlusconi.     

"I think that they have decided that if they remain on their own and do not go back in a coalition with Berlusconi, they will be too weak to be really serious competitors, and Maroni, who is the Secretary of the Northern League, is competing for the governorship of Lombardy, which is vital for the future of the party, and he needs Berlusconi for this."     

Berlusconi meanwhile suggested that the best position for him would be Minister of Finance, noting, "that would allow me to show once again, that I have no political ambition, and I don't think of politics as something that gives me advantages."       

Pavoncello thinks that Berlusconi not necessarily becoming Prime Minister in case of a victory "is the fig leaf that Berlusconi and the alliance had to put in order to make this new alliance a possibility."     

Berlusconi's last government ended in November 2011 under pressure from financial markets, which expressed a lack of confidence in his ability to reform Italy's economy.    

Berlusconi said it was still not clear whom the center-right coalition would back to run as premier, saying one possible candidate was Angelino Alfano, the leader of Berlusconi's People of Freedom party.       

The Northern League, however, was pushing for former Economics Minister Giulio Tremonti.   

A poll published on Sunday showed that the center-left was leading with 38 to 39 percent by the vote, followed by 26 to 28 percent for a center-right coalition with the Northern League. Centrist parties backing Monti show 14 to 15 percent of the vote.      

Despite the polls indicating that Berlusconi's approval has gone down from the approximately 40 percent he had when he was elected in 2008, Franco Pavoncello said, "certainly he's shown that when he can campaign and he has a month to campaign, he has a very strong video appeal, which at this point is rather surprising because, you know, many people have left him for dead".  


APTN