Presidential Elections 101: The numbers behind Lebanon’s presidential voting requirements

By Karine Keuchkerian

The upcoming Presidential election session, set to take place on June 14, 2023, is anticipated to witness a significant showdown between prominent factions within the Parliament, as two key contenders are eyeing the presidency, Jihad Azour and Sleiman Frangieh.    

However, achieving the necessary quorum is a pivotal determinant of the election's outcome.    

The Lebanese Constitution does not explicitly state the quorum needed for the presidential sessions. Some constitutional experts say since there is no mention of the quorum, thus it is a simple majority of the Parliament, meaning 65.   

While some experts claim that since it is an issue of utmost national interest, thus it is two thirds, representing 86.   

However, given the conditions set by current Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, the de facto quorum needed is the second, meaning 86.   

As for the number of votes needed, it is two-third, i.e., 86 votes, in the first session and half, thus 64, in the second session onwards.   

Article 49 of the Lebanese Constitution outlines that the President is elected via a secret ballot in the Parliament.   

The major Lebanese blocs are divided in their support for the respective candidates. Jihad Azour has garnered backing from opposition parties, some independent MPs, and crucial Christian factions such as the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, the Free Patriotic Movement, and a number of Change MPs.    

On the other hand, Sleiman Frangieh has predominantly secured the votes of the Resistance Axis, led by Hezbollah and the Amal Movement and their allies.   

A number of MPs who did not explicitly announce their final decisions will possibly determine who will secure more votes, including several change MPs, the Democratic Gathering, the National Moderation Bloc, and a number of independent Sunni MPs.    

As the election approaches, the numerical balance within the Parliament holds immense significance in determining the outcome and the future direction of Lebanon's leadership.