Syria's return to Arab League: Implications for Lebanon's borders and refugees

An essential indicator that must be considered in the context of the evolving Arab-Syrian relations is Lebanon's joining of the Arab Ministerial Committee, which will monitor the implementation of the resolutions and provisions of the Arab ministerial meeting, which decided to bring Syria back to the Arab League.

Among these provisions are essential files concerning Lebanon, especially the refugee return, border control, and combating smuggling, notably drug smuggling. 

Regardless of the party that pushed for Lebanon's membership in that committee or whether it was in response to a Lebanese request, especially that Lebanon insisted on participating and being a partner in the follow-up of the refugee return process, the decision itself is a clear Arab directive to official Lebanon to head towards Damascus. 

This matter has multiple implications.

 

The first point suggests that Lebanon has become obligated to have an official dialogue with Damascus regarding the return of refugees. It was a turning point because this issue was a major one and a source of Lebanese division.

The second point is that Lebanon, with its foreign policy and considering its political power balance, will be more inclined to be on Syria's side in the committee's position, mainly since many pressures will be exerted to support Damascus in multiple fields. 
 
Based on this development, many questions are being raised in Beirut about the implications of all these steps on the political level and also in the presidential file. 
 
It is known that the Lebanese file has not yet been included in the direct Iranian-Saudi negotiations. While there are Lebanese who are betting that Damascus will return to play a political role in Lebanon, based on the conviction of these individuals that the Arabs have returned to the old perspective that Lebanon cannot be ruled or influenced except through Syria.
 
Supporters of Assad in Lebanon
 
Some pessimists see this phase as similar to the post-Taef agreement era, where Lebanon was placed under Syrian tutelage, particularly after monitoring the Christian blocs that oppose the nomination of Sleiman Frangieh, who has close ties with Damascus and Hezbollah. 
 
Others believe that turning back the clock is not possible at this stage and that the Saudi-Iranian agreement must reflect balance in Lebanon. 
 
Furthermore, with Hezbollah's strong presence in Lebanon, and after its vital role in Syria, it is impossible for the Assad regime to regain broad political influence, especially since many who recently met with Bashar al-Assad and tried to discuss the Lebanese file seemed to be closely monitoring it, but referred everyone to Hezbollah for coordination.
 
Amidst all these facts, some consider that pushing Lebanon towards the committee and thus officially towards Syria will have many repercussions, especially in the file of refugee return, as many officials believe that large numbers of refugees here are politically loyal to the regime, meaning those classified as economic refugees, and among these hordes who participated in the Syrian presidential elections, their numbers were estimated at about 150,000 voters. 

This huge number means that if these people were counted with their families, especially their children who have not yet reached the voting age, there are about 500,000 Syrians in Lebanon, all loyal to the regime. 

This would give the regime in Damascus a significant ability to control the course of affairs both inside Lebanon and in the process of organizing their return to Syria. A large part of these people can move easily between Lebanon and Syria.

This number can give the regime in Damascus greater ability to control many Lebanese paths on the ground and in politics, especially in light of its benefit from the momentum of restoring its Arab relations.