Deciding Turkey's fate in round two: Ogan's chance in the presidential election

Presidential candidate and nationalist Sinan Ogan has fervently wished for a second round in the Turkish presidential elections, a wish that has come true.

Although Ogan's relatively low poll numbers, peaking at 5.20 percent of the Turkish voter's support, may not seem significant, this position could make him the potential president in the race.

In the first round, the leading candidates failed to secure an outright win, with close results.

Recep Tayyip Erdogan garnered 49.42 percent of the votes, and Kemal Kilicdaroglu received 44.95 percent.

These numbers suggest that Ogan's supporters could be crucial in determining who will be Turkey's president for the next five years.

Azerbaijani-descendent academic Sinan Ogan entered the election as a candidate for the Ancestral ATA Alliance, a coalition of four extreme right-wing nationalist parties.

These parties, represented by Ogan, have two main issues at stake: immigration policy and rejection of any cooperation with parties accused of supporting the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), classified as a terrorist organization in Turkey.

Who Ogan will choose and to whom his votes will flow in the second round remains a mystery.

Predicting where the votes will go is challenging, as it will largely depend on the negotiations led by Ogan with Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu. The two critical points in these negotiations will be refugees and relations with Kurdish-supporting parties.

Erdogan, the Conservative Islamic candidate, has the backing of a pro-Kurdish Islamic party. His supporters are Kurds who reject the PKK.

However, will Erdogan forsake his allies, who secured him one percent of voter support, to gain the ATA Alliance?

Erdogan's obstacle lies in the refugee file, as his Justice and Development Party's stance is far from the Ancestral ATA Alliance, focusing primarily on voluntary return.

Regarding a rapid and total return, the ATA alliance intersects with Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who promised to repatriate Syrian refugees within two years of winning the presidency.

Nevertheless, potential cooperation between ATA and Kilicdaroglu could be hindered by relations with Kurdish parties that supported him against Erdogan and secured him a significant voter base in Kurdish regions.

When asked who he would choose if the election went to a second round between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu, Ogan said, "we will consider their stances and decide logically."

As Turkey begins the longest two weeks of political history, both candidates appear ready to open the ballot boxes again.

Will Erdogan's claim to his election machinery, stating "we have many surprises," be true after the results are announced?

Or will Kilicdaroglu's numbers lift him from the runner-up's seat to the Turkish presidency's throne?