Profiting from conflict: Examining stock market activity before Hamas' plan on Israel

A study conducted by American researchers raised the question of whether individuals or groups were aware of Hamas' plan against Israel on October 7 before it occurred and if they profited from this information in the stock market, making millions.

The researchers observed unusual stock market activity a few days before October 7.

According to the study, these traders speculated that the prices of Israeli stocks would decline due to the expected attack.

To capitalize on this anticipation, they engaged in short selling, essentially borrowing stocks from the market without buying them, selling them at a high price.

After a few days, when the prices dropped due to the war, they bought them back at a lower price, thus making a net profit from the price difference.

The study revealed that open short-selling transactions reached a record high on October 2, the highest since 2009.

For example, the study detailed how some traders made around 30 million shekels, or over 8 million dollars, from the decline in Bank Leumi's Israeli stock, one of hundreds of Tel Aviv Stock Exchange stocks.

However, Israeli authorities have initiated an investigation into the matter.

This incident brings to the forefront theories that emerge after significant global events, suggesting economic, political, or security entities manipulate these events.

It draws parallels with investigations following significant events, such as the September 11, 2001 attacks, where inquiries were made into pre-event stock transactions, including shares of American Airlines and United Airlines, which occurred before the date of the event and could indicate prior knowledge, according to investigators.

This case also serves as a reminder of individuals and institutions having advance knowledge of Lebanon's financial crisis, allowing them to profit or safeguard their assets before the country defaulted on its debts.