Saudi-US negotiations: Can a strategic agreement pave the way for Israeli-Saudi normalization?

Report by Yazbek Wehbe, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

The US administration is serious about achieving a breakthrough in the Middle East that would boost President Joe Biden in his election battle.

While it has renewed its efforts with Iran, it is placing more emphasis on a comprehensive cooperation agreement with Saudi Arabia that Washington hopes will lead to normalizing Israeli-Saudi relations.

It is worth noting that this strategic agreement includes three main components:

- Understandings regarding extensive US security guarantees for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, including security-defense treaties.

- Assistance in developing a Saudi civil nuclear program that Riyadh wants to have the capability of uranium enrichment.

- Efforts to establish a Palestinian state, in exchange for Riyadh agreeing to normalize relations with Israel.

The near-final draft of this mutual agreement was discussed in the city of Dhahran by Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan.

Furthermore, Saudi media indicated that the work is nearing completion.

This draft is a key part of Washington's efforts to reach an understanding that would lead Saudi Arabia to recognize Israel, efforts that have been severely hampered by the war in Gaza. 

Saudi Arabia is interested in working with the US on the Palestinian issue to find a credible path towards a two-state solution, starting with ending the war in Gaza and facilitating the entry of humanitarian aid.

Saudi officials assert that normalizing relations with Israel is impossible without "irreversible" steps toward recognizing the Palestinian state, which Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long strongly opposed.

These negotiations are proceeding cautiously, even though Washington desires to "reap the fruits" quickly for President Biden's electoral gain. 

While the security agreement path is relatively smooth between the two countries, discussions on the nuclear program need more time due to American laws requiring congressional review.

The overarching issue is using uranium to produce clean energy. However, Riyadh is keen on developing nuclear expertise, noting that the Saudi Crown Prince has mentioned that if Iran develops a nuclear weapon, the kingdom will follow suit.

Washington, on the other hand, sees many benefits in completing this agreement, most notably finding a strong, capable "ally" to counter Iran's role, with major financial and economic capabilities.

Some questions remain unanswered: When can the agreement be reached amidst the intensifying Gaza war? Has the "price" of normalizing relations increased in light of Israel's determination in its war? Finally, does the situation await a grand deal that the entire Middle East needs?