Analyzing the 2024 EU election outcomes: Far-right surge and its implications

Report by Raneem Bou Khzam, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

So far, the European Union elections have shown an expected rise of the far-right, a decline for the Renew Europe political group, which includes the French President's party, and a significant decline for the Greens group, which had made substantial gains in the 2019 elections due to notable youth participation.

However, all these changes have not altered the balance of power in the European Parliament.

With vote counting still ongoing in some countries and completed in others, the results have shown that the EPP group, aligned with the center-right, has maintained the largest bloc in the parliament. 

Similarly, the S&D group, aligned with the center-left, has retained its position as the second strongest force in the European Parliament. 

Despite an expected loss of 22 seats, the Renew Europe group remains in third place.

These balances, which have not shifted at the European Parliament level at least in terms of numbers, have had a different impact on the domestic level in several countries that have completed the vote count.

In France, a political "upheaval" occurred with the far-right winning double the percentage of votes that the bloc including Emmanuel Macron's party received, prompting the French President to call for early elections.

In Italy, the far-right Prime Minister solidified her presence further with her party leading the results.

In Germany, which saw the highest voter turnout for European elections since its reunification in 1990, the Chancellor's party suffered a "humiliating" decline, coming in third place, surpassed by the far-right Alternative for Germany party, notorious for its political scandals.

The far-right also made gains in both Spain and the Netherlands.

In Greece, although the ruling party, which is aligned with the center-right, won, it saw a decrease in the percentage of votes. Additionally, it faced another blow with a historic low turnout rate of about 41 percent, compared to nearly 60 percent in 2019.

So, while the numerical balances have not changed the form of the European Parliament, the rise of the far-right could lead to changes in public policies. 

This rise has been fueled by rhetoric that addressed Europeans' fears of the high cost of living, increased migration and asylum, the economic impacts of climate change policies, Islamophobia, and fears over some governments' support for minority rights and its impact on the concept of the family.