US Diplomatic Efforts to Avoid Escalation: Hochstein's Mission and the Ceasefire Negotiations

A report by Nada Andraos, English adaptation by Nadine Sassine‎

The priorities of the United States in the region have not changed, particularly concerning the southern Lebanese front and northern occupied Palestine. 

The primary goal remains to avoid a larger war on Lebanon's borders. Will Amos Hochstein's efforts succeed this time as expected in favoring diplomatic solutions over war?

Based on available information, Hochstein's visit does not bring new or decisive proposals for a solution, or at least proposals convincing Hezbollah to retract its response to the assassination of Fouad Shokor and halt its support for Gaza.

What the US is trying to achieve through this visit is to warn of the potential damage on the battlefield, economy, and politics if the situation escalates into a large-scale war. Thus, the aim is to encourage de-escalation on the southern front.

It is reported that Hochstein will deliver a stern message to the parties involved in escalating the war, emphasizing that "there is no room for maneuvering, and the conflict will cause damage to both sides. If they do not agree to negotiate, it will result in significant bloodshed and destruction for everyone involved."

Despite attempts to preempt Hochstein's arrival in Beirut by leaking information and exaggerating the threat to Lebanon, Hezbollah's position remains unchanged.

Sources familiar with the group's position stated: "For Hezbollah, the 'natural' way to avoid the escalation is to stop the war on Gaza. Therefore, any proposal that excludes this process is not considered a solution."

While no significant outcomes are expected in Lebanon, various US efforts in the region are ongoing: Hochstein in Beirut, while Axios reports a tour by Secretary of State Antony Blinken, which includes Israel, Qatar, and Egypt. 

Blinken stated that the aim of the visit is to join the efforts to establish a ceasefire in Gaza and avoid escalation, joining CIA Director William Burns and White House Coordinator for the Middle East and North Africa Brett McGurk, who began a mission in Cairo focused specifically on the fate of the Rafah crossing. 

From there, he will head to Doha, where negotiations concerning Gaza will take place on Thursday.

This move seeks to finalize a hostage deal and a ceasefire in Gaza in the upcoming negotiations on Thursday, aiming to prevent Iranian and Hezbollah retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh and Fouad Shokor.

Meanwhile, a joint statement from the US, UK, France, Germany, and Italy emerged, emphasizing the importance of Thursday's talks and the need to finalize the deal; it also warned of the dangers of going to war in the region and affirmed support for Israel in facing any Iranian threats.