Post-Sinwar: Impact on US elections and global reactions

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

What is next after the assassination of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar? Will there be an escalation of violence or a ceasefire?

The decision on whether to escalate the war or push for a ceasefire now lies solely in the hands of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Any decision he makes will have significant implications for the U.S. presidential election on November 5.

Netanyahu faces two options. He can accelerate negotiations for a hostage deal and ceasefire, effectively handing the Democratic Party's nominee, Kamala Harris, a potential boost in her bid for the White House. 

On the other hand, if he persists in pursuing all the war's objectives, particularly the eradication of Hamas, he may bolster Republican candidate Donald Trump's chances by prolonging the war.

The current U.S. administration, under President Joe Biden, views Sinwar's assassination as an opportunity to broker a ceasefire in Gaza, facilitate the release of hostages, and lay the groundwork for post-war reconstruction. 

To this end, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Israel next week to press its government on these matters.

Preparing to leave the White House, Biden shares the same stance as Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris. 

France is also pushing for a ceasefire in both Gaza and Lebanon. The West's position was clearly articulated by European Union foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, who stated that Sinwar had been an obstacle to a ceasefire and the unconditional release of all hostages.

However, Russia has adopted a more reserved approach, expressing concern over the assassination but refraining from more direct commentary. 

Meanwhile, Iran has condemned the killing, asserting that Sinwar's death will strengthen the spirit of resistance and that he will serve as an enduring symbol for the youth fighting for the liberation of Palestine.

Amid these diverging global reactions, some analysts believe that Sinwar's death may grant Hamas greater flexibility in negotiations. 

In this context, Qatar, Egypt, and Iran are expected to play pivotal roles, as the choice of Sinwar's successor will not only influence the fate of Israeli hostages but also shape the future of the broader war, from Gaza to Lebanon and other fronts.