Possible US-Iran deal raises questions over future of war in Lebanon

Report by Petra Abou Haidar, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

As speculation grows over a possible agreement between the United States and Iran, questions are mounting over how such a deal could affect the war in Lebanon and the confrontation between Hezbollah and Israel.

According to reports, a halt to the war in Lebanon is included in the proposed agreement after Iran reportedly insisted that any ceasefire arrangement should apply across all regional fronts.

However, the key question is how such a provision would be implemented. Observers are asking whether it would lead to a comprehensive end to hostilities or merely reproduce the current fragile ceasefire model, under which Israel maintains what it describes as the right to act against perceived threats.

Axios reported that the draft agreement includes an end to the war between Israel and Hezbollah, although Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reportedly raised reservations about that clause during a call with U.S. President Donald Trump.

At the same time, Washington has reportedly assured Israel that it would still be able to act if Hezbollah attempted to rearm or prepare attacks.

While U.S. media reports have outlined elements of the proposed deal, official Lebanese sources told LBCI that Lebanon has not yet received any formal details. The sources said, however, that Lebanon would welcome any agreement that genuinely leads to a full end to the war.

The sources added that if the arrangement merely formalizes a ceasefire, Lebanon is already operating under a 45-day extension reached after recent negotiations in Washington. They stressed that Israel has not fully adhered to the ceasefire terms, meaning any new agreement would effectively serve to reinforce and formalize the existing framework.

Lebanese officials also reiterated Beirut's position that negotiations between Lebanon and Israel should remain separate from the broader U.S.-Iran talks, despite what they described as ongoing Iranian efforts to link the Lebanese file to Tehran’s negotiations with Washington as a way of demonstrating support for Hezbollah.

Meanwhile, Lebanese officials continue intensive contacts with the United States in an attempt to stabilize the fragile ceasefire and secure a comprehensive halt to military operations across Lebanese territory. According to the sources, no clear response has yet been received from Washington, while Israel continues to justify its operations by citing Hezbollah’s ongoing activities.

For its part, Hezbollah—which has reportedly been counting since the beginning of the conflict on the outcome of the U.S.-Iran talks and Tehran’s ability to secure a ceasefire—reaffirmed through MP Hassan Fadlallah that Iran continues to stand by the group and is linking any agreement with Washington to ending the war in Lebanon.

Amid these competing calculations and positions, the outcome ultimately remains uncertain.