The question hanging over Lebanon: Will Hezbollah join Iran's next war?

Report by Bassam Abou Zeid, English adaptation by Yasmine Jaroudi

As reports grow of a possible expansion of the war between the United States and Israel on one side and Iran on the other, attention is turning to Lebanon, where one question is dominating public concern: Will Hezbollah join another war in support of Iran?

The answer depends first on developments across the region and, second, on the decision Iran would make if it comes under attack.

Tehran, which held talks Monday on its territory with Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey as part of efforts to de-escalate tensions, has reportedly warned those concerned that any attack on Iran would ignite the region on an unprecedented scale. It has also reportedly indicated that allied parties and militias across the region, including Hezbollah, would enter the fight with whatever strength they have left.

However, in Beirut, other information has emerged indicating that Hezbollah has promised Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri that it will not join any new war, regardless of how it is described.

People close to Berri and sources at the presidency confirmed the information, saying President Joseph Aoun was informed by Berri of Hezbollah’s pledge.

According to informed sources, Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Saeed Khatibzadeh also told a group of lawmakers from the Hezbollah-Amal parliamentary bloc in Beirut on October 14 that Tehran does not want Hezbollah to become involved in any war on its behalf. Lebanon, according to what was conveyed by Khatibzadeh, has already paid a heavy price, while Hezbollah’s deterrence capabilities have also declined.

LBCI sources indicate that what the lawmakers heard from Khatibzadeh was not the same message Berri received from him during their meeting at Ain al-Tineh. Hezbollah, the party directly concerned by the issue, has declined to comment on the reports.

Hezbollah had previously promised Berri that it would not enter the war if Iran came under attack, but it eventually joined the fighting on March 2.

That raises questions over whether Hezbollah’s latest pledge will hold, or whether Iran could ultimately impose its position. Another question is whether Israel would keep Hezbollah out of any future conflict with Iran, or whether it would seek to draw the group into the war.