Will Israel’s war with Hezbollah cost Netanyahu votes in the north?

Report by Toni Mrad, English adaptation by Karine Keuchkerian

As Israel’s Oct. 27 elections approach, residents of Kiryat Shmona, a town near the Lebanese border that has borne the brunt of the war with Hezbollah, face a key question: Will the conflict shape their vote?

Residents of northern Israel account for around 17% of the country’s voters, making them an important constituency for both Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the opposition.

In the 2022 elections, Netanyahu’s Likud party won around 50% of the vote in Kiryat Shmona, 44% in Shlomi and 39% in Nahariyya. The strong support in these towns helped Netanyahu form the coalition that brought him to power.

Today, the conflict with Hezbollah could change voters’ calculations.

Residents of the north want security guarantees to prevent a repeat of attacks from Lebanon, along with compensation, reconstruction and a return to normal life in their towns.

A poll conducted by the Hebrew University of Jerusalem and published by Reuters in May showed that support for Netanyahu’s Likud party in the north had fallen from 35% to 23%. Around 70% of respondents also expressed dissatisfaction with the government’s handling of the war in Lebanon.

The conflict in Lebanon has therefore become part of the election campaign.

Netanyahu is trying to convince northern residents that he has weakened Hezbollah and can protect them.

Meanwhile, his rival Gadi Eisenkot is calling for greater freedom for the Israeli military to strike Hezbollah. He has criticized Netanyahu, saying the goal of eliminating the military threat to northern Israel has not been achieved.

Former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who has allied with Yair Lapid, has accused Netanyahu’s government of returning to a policy of containing Hezbollah and failing to restore security to the north.

Some far-right parties, meanwhile, are calling for Israel to take control of additional territory in Lebanon.

The question remains: Will northern residents vote for Netanyahu because they believe he has protected them, or punish him at the ballot box because they still do not feel safe?