Lebanon is on vacation from politics, and all files have been migrated after Christmas and New Year's Eve. The last thing the Lebanese were waiting for was what could come out of the Amman summit. Still, the summit's final statement did not include any point related to the Lebanese file, despite the French president's endeavor to raise this file.
Macron's words, in which he indicated that there is a need for sincere cooperation between countries to get Lebanon out of its crisis, in addition to working to address the crisis in Iraq and Syria, give the impression that the main part of resolving the crisis is regional. This means that the Lebanese file will need a long time to ripen.
This article was originally published in, and translated from, the Lebanese outlet Al Modon.
However, this does not mean that contacts have stopped. Rather, Paris is still seeking and trying with the Saudis and Iranians to lay down a path that prepares the ground until a settlement is possible.
On the regional level
In Lebanon, two remarkable positions have emerged in the past days, the position of Prime Minister Najib Mikati on the presence of signs about external efforts to address the Lebanese crisis and another position announced by the Hezbollah representative, Ali Fayyad, as he said: "I expect with the beginning of the year that we will witness a movement of, it turns out that in the Lebanese file there is some kind of solution at the regional level.":
This position also indicates that an essential part of the solution to the Lebanese crisis is regional, linked to communication between the influential regional powers.
These positions come in light of the increasing international pressure on Iran, from US President Joe Biden's announcement that the nuclear deal is dead and there are no signs of reviving it, in addition to the French positions on continuing to condemn the regime's repression against Iranian demonstrators.
While in Iran, two positions emerge. The first seeks to revive communication through renewing negotiations with the nuclear file and preparing to renew dialogue between Tehran and Riyadh. The second position was represented in the words of the commander of the Quds Force, Ismail Qaani, in which he attacked Saudi Arabia and involved an escalation inside Iran and abroad.
Iranian diplomacy and Hezbollah's readiness
Iranian diplomacy insists on presenting positive signals, whether by announcing the meeting between Foreign Minister Hussein Amir Abdullahian and Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan. It is an indication of Tehran's willingness to discuss all files. This is also reflected by articulating readiness to resume negotiations on the nuclear issue or through other signs related to seeking to reactivate dialogue with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. This is what the Iranian minister discussed with Qatari and Omani officials.
Abdullahian's words are inseparable from the words made by the Iranian ambassador in Beirut a few days ago about the possibility of renewing the Iranian-Saudi dialogue. In the same context, the visit of the Iranian cultural advisor to the Maronite Patriarchate, which included congratulations on the holidays, constituted an opportunity to announce the need for dialogue between the various Lebanese parties to address the crisis.
Amidst this atmosphere, Hezbollah circles affirm that the party is open to all settlement options and ready to go to a comprehensive settlement with a reform plan that requires consensus among the Lebanese. This consensus needs dialogue. Hezbollah circles also indicate that it does not place a veto on any presidential candidate. The circles confirm that the party is approaching the internal files, especially the presidential election, in a calm and non-escalation manner and that it is ready to enter into any settlement. Therefore, the insistence on internal dialogue aims to prepare the conditions until circumstances exist through which a comprehensive political settlement can be produced.