In a bid to uncover the details of a recent meeting between Sleiman Frangieh, the leader of the Marada Movement, and the Saudi Ambassador to Beirut, Walid Bukhari, investigations were launched on Thursday.
The focus of these investigations extends to both local and regional implications, in parallel with investigations to explore what external developments will lead to, particularly the upcoming Jeddah Summit to which Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been invited.
This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.
However, there are talks regarding a potential meeting between Assad and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman before the summit, scheduled for May 19.
Internally, those concerned closely monitor internal and Qatari initiatives aimed at reaching an understanding between the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), the Lebanese Forces, the Kataeb Party, and opposition MPs regarding a candidate to support against Frangieh in light of conflicts about the progress of these discussions.
Negotiations are now centered around a few names on which consensus could be reached. Tensions are palpable, mainly expressed by Sami Gemayel, the leader of the Kataeb Party, who commented on the Frangieh-Bukhari meeting, saying, "I'm not concerned, and it is not a green light."
Moreover, sources familiar with the matter suggest that Qatar may have engaged with the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb Party, or independent figures, but the topic was not broached with the FPM. Nevertheless, the latter received an offer from a Lebanese figure who proposed mediating between the Lebanese Forces, Kataeb Party, and the FPM to reach an agreement on a new candidate acceptable to all Lebanese.
Regarding the stance of the Lebanese Forces who are insisting on a candidate who would confront the Amal-Hezbollah duo, sources indicate that Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Forces, has backed away from this confrontation. Instead, he has accepted a consensus candidate who "does not provoke Hezbollah, in particular."
The Lebanese Forces believe they have made a "significant concession" in this matter, as their goal was to present a candidate to challenge Frangieh within a few weeks.
The reasons behind their inclination towards a consensus candidate include their fear of being held responsible for obstructing the presidential election and that the Saudi stance does not support the settlement mentioned by France.
Furthermore, Ambassador Bukhari deliberately maintained ambiguity in his discussions with all parties he met in order to preserve a margin of maneuver for Saudi Arabia, which first and foremost seeks to avoid direct involvement in a fight for which it would later bear full responsibility.
The ambassador also seeks to encourage opposition forces to Frangieh to act quickly in presenting an alternative candidate capable of garnering a significant number of votes, including the Democratic Gathering bloc.
Sources call for patience to await the imminent results of these efforts, as it is now possible to discuss a serious candidate who will emerge soon after reaching an agreement outlining the supposed project they will undertake. These sources mentioned the existence of ready and suitable names for this role.
Contacts with Frangieh's support team speak of "a potential half-solution that may lead to positive outcomes in the upcoming weeks." These opposition circles interpreted Bukhari's invitation to Frangieh as a new message to " affirm the Saudi stance, which leans toward not engaging in a presidential battle in Lebanon." They added that Bukhari reiterated to Frangieh that there is no Saudi veto on him or anyone else and that Riyadh hopes to elect a new president as soon as possible.
Additionally, opposition analysts believe that Bukhari conveyed to his guest that the meeting was not a friendly message from the Kingdom.
On the other hand, Frangieh described the meeting as amicable and excellent, relaying these sentiments to Hezbollah, Speaker Nabih Berri, and others, indicating that the Saudi ambassador treated him with great warmth, assuring him that there is no Saudi veto on his candidacy. Frangieh received answers from Bukhari on several issues related to the crisis.
Consequently, visitors to Ain al-Tineh, the residence of Berri, reported that the situation was excellent.
While the visit sparked some discontent in terms of questioning the appropriateness of Frangieh's visit to the Saudi embassy as a presidential candidate, sources clarified that there was no specific appointment for Bukhari to visit Bnachai. Instead, the ambassador extended the invitation to Frangieh, which he accepted.
These sources also pointed out that the meeting was not an individual or one-sided move but involved coordination between the French and several parties, including Speaker Berri.
Observers characterized it as more than ordinary, as it is unjustifiable for Bukhari to meet with most political forces without meeting Frangieh. Nonetheless, they do not dismiss the possibility that this invitation was an attempt to achieve two objectives simultaneously: confirming the absence of a veto and reassuring undecided parties regarding their stance on electing Frangieh, particularly Sunni MPs.
It is worth noting that all eyes remain on the behavior of Walid Jumblatt, the leader of the Progressive Socialist Party, who is expected to present his presidential approach during a forthcoming media appearance on Monday.