Will Le Drian present new roadmap for the Lebanese presidency?

Despite the significant developments in the region over the past two weeks, during which the meeting between French President Emmanuel Macron and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman topped Lebanese interests, the internal scene in Beirut seems to be troubled with many uncertainties that make it difficult to speculate on the path of the presidential crisis. 

This article was originally published in, translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Akhbar.

Additionally, the days between the Paris meeting and the arrival of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian on Wednesday to Lebanon have not provided any decisive information regarding the discussions on Lebanon.

Prominent political sources affirmed that none of the local forces have yet received confirmed indications from Paris, considering that a new political path will begin "on Wednesday after Le Drian lands in Beirut and the French position is revealed," and whether Paris still adheres to the "realistic solution" as described by the French or if it will propose something new based on the negative balance resulting from the last presidential election session and the clash between the proposed compromise and the objections of Christian forces.

Moreover, informed sources mentioned that "the French envoy will begin a new round of consultations to know the opinions of parliamentary blocs and officials whom he will meet, and he will be more of a listener than a speaker."

This will be amid indications that he does not bring anything new on the presidential file. It should be noted that "the information regarding the discussions on Lebanon, linked to what is happening in the entire region, confirms a tilt in favor of the camp supporting the nomination of the Marada Movement leader, Sleiman Frangieh. However, translating this into action requires time and careful handling."

Additionally, the name of Army Commander Joseph Aoun began to emerge publicly as the "third option" to break the deadlock, and some attempted to market information about Hezbollah and Amal Movement, not rejecting his candidacy.

But, prominent political sources denied any discussions with both parties on this matter.

They confirmed that "Hezbollah is not inclined to abandon Frangieh, and this is a consistent position for them and Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri," especially after "the last election session confirmed that the opposition's alliance is not stable and cohesive, and the number of votes received by Frangieh has strengthened his nomination, not the opposite."

Bassil stands firm

MP Gebran Bassil reiterated on Monday his rejection of the army commander's candidacy, and he considered that the results of the June 14 session should push the pro-Frangieh camp to abandon him and search for a consensus candidate.

He also made it clear that Jihad Azour's nomination served its purpose in demonstrating the inability of the Frangieh camp to gather significant support. He then mentioned other names that could be agreed upon.

Furthermore, Bassil stated that there is an ongoing trust crisis with the Lebanese Forces, but he called for dialogue between all Lebanese forces. He expressed his reliance on "Hezbollah's rationality" in looking at the country's future.

On the other hand, he emphasized the importance of the relationship with Syria in a way that serves the idea of "Orientalism" that concerns Christians, urging Christian forces to abandon all ideas that historically led to the destruction of Christians and harmed their interests and presence. He also considered Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad a key ally in this regard.

Legislation of necessity

The legislative parliamentary session was held on Monday, and the heated item regarding the provision of salaries for public sector employees for the rest of the year was approved, along with incentives and transportation allowances for professors at the Lebanese University.

The positions expressed during the session revealed a crisis of confidence among the forces that aligned with Azour's nomination. This was not limited to specific factions but extended to some MPs, such as Adib Abd Al-Massih, a member of the Renewal bloc, who attended the legislative session and then left after securing the quorum.

He clarified that he is "in favor of any step aimed at meeting the needs of the public sector" and that he "did not sign the opposition statement issued regarding this matter."

Abd Al-Massih's move came amid information indicating a dispute between him and members of the Renewal bloc to which he belongs, and he may announce his separation from it later.

However, the participation of the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM) in the session has also caused dissatisfaction among opposition forces.

Their sources stated that "ensuring the quorum of the legislative session in the absence of the opposing camp reflects a double standard," considering that "the alignment of the FPM with opposition forces should not be limited to the presidential file but should include all aspects related to this issue to emphasize the existence of a solid parliamentary bloc against the other party."

However, the Lebanese Forces Party leader, Samir Geagea, pointed out, "The deputies who claimed that their participation in the session was to prevent public sector employees from facing salary cuts are not telling the truth. They are using an excuse to justify holding the session, as the government could have easily approved the additional funds, as it did with many allocations in the previous year."

The FPM bloc responded through MP Ibrahim Kanaan, stating that "the supreme interest of the state necessitates approving salaries, which means securing the livelihood of 400,000 families. They should not bear the burden of political disputes and different constitutional interpretations."

Meanwhile, the Cabinet is holding a session on Tuesday to discuss an agenda of 33 items.

Moreover, attention is focused on the item related to promoting officers in all security agencies. Ministerial sources indicated that "Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati will sign the promotion independently, despite the Caretaker Defense Minister boycotting Cabinet sessions due to political reasons related to the FPM bloc he belongs to."