Al-Aqsa Flood: A shift in maps or a battle within the war?

In his retaliatory threats, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the military operation his forces are conducting in the Gaza Strip aims to change the map of Palestine and the Gaza Strip, altering the realities of the Middle East. 

This article was originally published in, translated from online newspaper "Al Anbaa."

In response, Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian, from Beirut, stated that the continued Israeli military operations against civilians in Gaza would ignite the fronts by the axis of resistance.

Furthermore, Abdollahian considered that Hezbollah's entry into the battle would lead to a significant earthquake that would shake Israel and contribute to changing the situation in the region and the maps in Palestine.

Both sides seek to change realities and maps from their perspective. Iranian threats remain within the framework of pressure to achieve political goals following the major military strike conducted by Hamas against the occupation. But if these efforts fail, the fronts will ignite.

A major war or a battle?

This raises a fundamental question: Is all this escalation tantamount to entering the "major war," or is it a battle in ongoing, open wars?

A week after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, Israel has not succeeded in achieving any real military objectives. External initiatives for a ceasefire do not appear to be serious, and Iran and Hezbollah are waiting for developments to decide whether to enter the war or not, a decision based on military assessments and plans.

Nevertheless, the region oscillates between a "major war" and a path toward it.

In this context, there are increasing assessments and analyses about whether Hezbollah would prepare a surprise against the Israelis or whether it could have entered beyond the Galilee last Saturday when the Al-Aqsa Flood operation began.

However, these remain calculations that cannot be predicted or known militarily.

Iran's political and military lines

Practically, the Iranians are working on two fronts: Enhancing resilience and readiness for resistance, and the other front is readiness for negotiation and a ceasefire.

The axis of resistance believed it still possesses strength, especially with Hamas, so it wouldn't need intervention and assistance as long as it could surprise.

Based on this, Iran appears comfortable in its stance, starting from Abdollahian's tour in the region and playing on two stages, the political and military, and reaching the threat against Israel, giving it a request for a ceasefire, or else the axis of resistance will enter the war, as Abdollahian declared after his tour.

Israel's crisis

On the other hand, Israel appears to be in a dire situation.
If it agrees to a ceasefire, it will have suffered a major defeat and a severe blow with long-lasting repercussions and significant regional changes.

If Israel decides to launch a ground operation, the results are uncertain, and the costs would be extremely high, with no guarantee of achieving accomplishments.

Suppose Israel chooses to continue its ongoing operations, focusing on destruction and displacement. In that case, this is something that the axis of resistance cannot remain silent about or accept, which would force it to enter the conflict forcefully. 

And if Hezbollah enters the field, the dynamics will change, and strikes against the Israelis will continue.

International diplomatic activity

Against the backdrop of this heightened state of alert and these threats, international and diplomatic pressures are increasing to reach a ceasefire or a halt to the violence through the actions taking place in the region, especially since all parties are in a difficult position.

The United States cannot continue to cover the crimes committed by Israel, and no one can accept any project involving displacement.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Qatar are strengthening their efforts. At the same time, Saudi Arabia rejects all Israeli and American proposals, including the safe corridor for the evacuation of civilians, and suspends any negotiations related to normalization.

Egypt takes a tough stance in refusing the evacuation of civilians and even going so far as to completely close the Rafah crossing, while the Americans continue to exert pressure to secure a safe corridor for the evacuation of American and Egyptian citizens, which could serve as a pretext for the displacement of civilians.

This indicates that the Americans want to evacuate civilians and leave Israel to launch a major military operation.

Moreover, Jordan is bustling with popular movements on its borders.

This imposes a popular and political reality that pressures Israel and the United States, contributing to their embarrassment.

Therefore, Tel Aviv will be trapped in military failure or the commission of further crimes.