Lebanon encircled: Hamas' resilience prevents Hezbollah from entering the battle

Amid political and diplomatic efforts to keep Lebanon out of the Gaza war, international and Arab stances are striving to limit the scope of the battles.

However, mounting pressures on the Lebanese suggest that the country is increasingly encircled.

This article was originally published in and translated from the Lebanese newspaper Al-Modon.

Many indicators suggest that this encirclement will intensify in the coming period. This is particularly evident with Israel revealing the stoppage of a Hezbollah unit operating in Brazil, reports of Hezbollah possessing Russian Yakhont missiles, and Hezbollah's threats against American interests. 

These developments follow Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah's threats and preparations to counter potential maritime attacks by the United States, considering it a serious threat.

Given these military developments and ongoing political and diplomatic efforts to keep Lebanon out of the war, the US has sent clear messages, restricting clashes to a 2 km depth based on the rules of engagement and not allowing other factions, except Hezbollah, to continue military operations.

These warnings appear to be a final alert to Lebanon to prevent the situation from escalating further, especially in light of Israeli aggressions and potential Israeli intentions to take advantage of substantial international support.

Israel seems to be attempting to carry out attacks beyond the limits of the engagement zones, violating the rules more than once. It targeted an ambulance and civilian vehicles in Ainata, leading to four martyrs and striking Hezbollah positions deep inside Lebanese territory, more than 20 km from the border. These acts are perceived as Israeli messages about readiness to escalate the clashes.

Nonetheless, these attacks also provide Hezbollah with suitable conditions to respond within the rules of engagement, particularly amid suspicions that Tel Aviv seeks to provoke Hezbollah into a broader confrontation.

Lebanon's significant bets lie on two factors: international diplomatic and political efforts and relying on Hamas' resilience, with Israel's inability to achieve any strategic goals leading to the breakdown of the movement. The mere endurance of Hamas will prevent Hezbollah from entering the battle. It will also dissuade Israel from contemplating opening a new front with Lebanon.

In this context, several signs indicate that time is no longer on Israel's side, despite Netanyahu's attempts to prolong the war. The fear of his political fate, facing potential imprisonment and political downfall, cannot be separated from the existence of a US plan related to changing the entire ruling regime in Israel, especially Netanyahu, and forming a new government.

This path seemingly intersects with another track related to reshaping Palestinian leadership and involving Hamas politically. There is ongoing exploration of this approach at the regional and international levels, within a narrowing horizon for the war.