Lebanon's presidential conundrum: A pessimistic outlook and foreign mediation

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2024-01-19 | 01:45
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Lebanon's presidential conundrum: A pessimistic outlook and foreign mediation
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Lebanon's presidential conundrum: A pessimistic outlook and foreign mediation

According to a senior official responding to a question about foreign efforts and mediations to move the presidential file, as reported by "Al-Joumhouria,": "If there were serious or urgent initiatives regarding the presidential file, their outlines or preparations would have at least appeared. In any case, all we can do is wait, and we are ready for positive interaction with any initiative, regardless of its source."

This article is originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper Al-Joumhouria.
In this context, there is a pessimistic interpretation of the presidential situation, with a political source expressing doubts about a breakthrough in the foreseeable future. The source told "Al-Joumhouria": "I fear that the presidential file has been deferred beyond the war, and let the masters of obstruction rejoice."

Regarding foreign initiatives and the rumored possible visit of French envoy Jean-Yves Le Drian, the source said: "I know Mr. Le Drian; he is a serious and sincere person in his efforts. I am not aware that he is coming. However, the situation is different now, as all facts confirm that the outside, without exception, is indifferent whether the presidential file is resolved or not."

The source continued: "Even if new initiatives towards Lebanon occur, all that is wanted from Lebanon at this time is cooling the southern front and persuading Hezbollah to cease its operations against the Israeli army on the borders, fearing the widening of the war. This is confirmed by all the envoys, including Amos Hochstein, who visited Lebanon. They are primarily concerned about Israel and their interests."

The same source expressed significant concerns about the escalation of the southern front, stating: "I feel that war is looming and may not be delayed, perhaps hastened by a miscalculation or a missile error. Therefore, I emphasize Hezbollah's caution against drifting into war."

Additionally, the source said: "The region has entered a stage of dangerous transformations, and the October 7th process has opened up a new reality evident from military and political developments that will take some time. But ultimately, all the countries in the region, including Israel and others, will be affected."

Simultaneously, amid rumors of a meeting to be held by the Quintet group in the next two weeks to relaunch the presidential process, "Al-Joumhouria" learned from reliable diplomatic sources that "French Ambassador Hervé Magro is preparing for a soon-to-be-held meeting of Quintet ambassadors in Beirut.

The French ambassador is paving the way for a higher-level meeting of its representatives in one of the committee's capitals, whether Paris, Riyadh, Doha, or Cairo, as a prelude to the return of envoy Le Drian carrying the directives of the central committee."

The sources added: "This renewed activity aims to revive the presidential track after the explosive regional situation overshadowed it. France will coordinate with the Quintet elements to separate the Lebanese presidential track from the regional one to avoid complicating both files if they remain connected."

Moreover, the sources highlighted that the Quintet representatives, Saudi Nizar Al-Aloula, Qatari Mohammed Al-Khulaifi or Jassem bin Fahad, and French Jean-Yves Le Drian, are well-informed about the Lebanese file in detail and are ready to move towards Beirut after the Quintet meeting, which has not yet been scheduled, pending the consolidation of some ideas handled by ambassadors in Beirut.

In a related presidential context, a member of the "Independent Parliamentary Gathering" MP Charbel Massaad, informed "Al-Joumhouria," saying: "The gathering continues its weekly meetings to formulate a vision for the presidential deadline, in addition to discussing legislative and parliamentary issues in front of the parliament, to reach common ground on all issues, especially the presidential deadline."

Massaad continued: "Next week, the meeting will be held at MP Neemat Frem's place to continue the discussion. MPs are making individual contacts with other MPs because each of us has a margin to move and specificities."

He added: "So far, there is no common name among us, but there are common specifications for the future president, and there is consensus on the necessity of holding open sessions to elect the president and implement the constitution. The internal democratic game should proceed without waiting for external initiatives amid the existing living, economic, political, and regional problems."
 

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