"Al-Joumhouria" reveals French blueprint for Southern peace talks

The proposed French proposal to end the military confrontation between Hezbollah and the Israeli occupation army has encountered several complications and "suspicions" that led to its failure, putting Paris in the dock after some doubted its true intentions and objectives.

This article was originally published in, translated from Lebanese newspaper al-Joumhouria.

Consequently, most Lebanese parties who have reviewed the French proposal have the impression that it is biased towards Tel Aviv. 

Hezbollah even considered it an utterly Israeli document, which negatively impacted the credibility and integrity of the French role.

Internally in Lebanon, some have criticized Paris for engaging in a campaign of pressure and exaggeration against Lebanon. 

They argue that French envoys have shifted from assumed mediators to mere messengers conveying Israeli threats of a wide-ranging war to the Lebanese government and Hezbollah, aiming to push them into making sovereignty concessions related to the future situation in the south.

However, where do the French stand on these accusations, and what is their narrative regarding the calming project they advocate?

According to informed French diplomatic sources speaking to "Al-Joumhouria," the French paper to de-escalate tensions on the southern border is not Israeli-centric but broadly balanced, considering Lebanon's interests and stability.

The sources emphasize that the paper is open to discussion and not final, explaining that Paris has not yet received any official and final response from the Lebanese or Israeli governments.

The sources stress that Paris is an impartial mediator between Lebanon and Israel. "It is not true that we are predisposed to the Israeli government, which has not yet responded to our proposals, perhaps because it did not like the part concerning its commitment to respect Lebanese sovereignty and cease its violations."

French diplomatic sources deny any intentional exaggeration targeting Lebanese officials that could suggest Israel might launch a wide-scale war. "Instead, we are acting realistically and responsibly on the basis that tension cannot be guaranteed to remain within the current levels."

"If we do nothing in the meantime, the risk factor will rise. So why not try to open a diplomatic window in this wall to avoid the worst-case scenario? This is the issue for us," the sources added.

The sources indicated that the paper is essentially "a French attempt to find a diplomatic-negotiating path at present to prevent any deterioration into a wide war between Lebanon and Israel."

"However, the US strategy, in contrast, relies on letting things take their course and allowing tension to escalate to the maximum. Therefore, waiting until the war in Gaza ends to resume intervention and discuss arranging the situation on the southern borders," the sources said.

French sources considered that "Amos Hochstein's failure to move to Beirut after his recent visit to Israel is a clear indication that the Americans are not eager to settle the border conflict currently."

The diplomatic sources pointed out that the French paper notes "halting Israeli airspace violations of Lebanese sovereignty, forming a monitoring committee to ensure the implementation of any agreement reached similar to the committee formed in 1996 to oversee the implementation of the April Understanding."

In addition, the committee will be responsible for" deploying the Lebanese army after its reinforcement along the border, addressing disputes over disputed geographical points, withdrawing armed groups 10 kilometers in line with the essence of Resolution 1701."

The basis of this item is to have a balanced situation on both sides of the border, where the Lebanese army is present on one side and the Israeli army is on the other, with the withdrawal not meaning the withdrawal of the residents of the front villages but rather organized groups," as explained by the same sources.

The French sources emphasized the importance of the army's role in protecting stability and sovereignty, stating, "Therefore, the paper emphasizes the need to enhance its capabilities to perform the required task."

The sources added: "We are offering a real opportunity to the Lebanese to ensure stability in the south, and we advise them to take advantage of it because we are truly keen on their interests due to the special and historical relations between France and their country, while the Americans prioritize Israeli requirements mainly."

"However, the Lebanese are free to decide what they want. They can either respond to the French endeavor and immediately engage in the negotiation process, during which all demands and concerns can be discussed, or they can wait for Washington, which does not want to intervene seriously until the war in Gaza ends, with the risks this waiting poses to Lebanon, as the situation may suddenly escalate into a wide confrontation, although there is an impression that the conflicting parties are seeking to avoid it," the sources indicated.

The sources continue: "Perhaps the worst-case scenario is if Donald Trump wins the US presidential elections and returns to power, and then we do not know if Lebanon can rely on a president who during his first term moved the US embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem and supported the Israeli decision to annex the Golan Heights. Therefore, it is unknown how the Shebaa Farms' fate could be in this context?"

Moreover, the sources affirmed that "France is trying to pressure Tel Aviv to move towards achieving a ceasefire in Gaza, and we are well aware that calming there would facilitate calming here, but this does not mean that we should just watch the escalation between Lebanon and Israel until the war in Gaza ends."

French sources revealed that "the Israelis have informed us that they refuse to return to the situation before October 7 on the borders with Lebanon, and they are escalating their strikes both in terms of target areas and targeted individuals."

The sources hoped that "the available French opportunity to address the military conflict between the party and the Israelis will be seized before it worsens further."