Yemen to seal Saleh's exit in one-candidate vote

After a year of protests, diplomatic wrangling and an assassination attempt, Yemenis will draw a line under Ali Abdullah Saleh's three-decade rule on Tuesday by voting in an uncontested election to install his deputy as president.    

In the capital Sanaa, new posters of the sole candidate, Vice President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi, have been plastered over the peeling scraps of Saleh's mustachioed image -- a visible sign of a fourth Arab autocrat's demise in the wake of revolutions in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya.    

Hadi, 66, became acting president when Saleh stepped aside in November under a deal hammered out by Yemen's Gulf neighbors, fearful of a slide into lawlessness on their doorstep, and backed by the United States.    

But civil war remains a very real risk in a country facing rebellion in the north, a southern secessionist movement, an emboldened offshoot of al Qaeda and an economic crisis that has brought it to the brink of famine.    

"If the new government fails to fulfill its obligations to reach out and re-integrate the southerners, the Houthis (northerners) and the youth ... then conflict will be inevitable," said political analyst Abdulghani al-Iryani.   

The power transfer, brokered by the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), has been touted by regional and Western powers as a triumph of diplomacy.     Visiting Yemen, U.S. Deputy National Security Advisor John Brennan praised Hadi's efforts against al Qaeda and said on Sunday that Washington hoped the country would be a model of peaceful political transition in the Middle East.    

Yet most Yemenis see Hadi as a caretaker rather than a seasoned leader. If he is unable to keep warring interests within the military from getting out of hand, many fear Yemen will be torn apart by those hoping to exploit a power vacuum.    

"The GCC deal does nothing more than maintain the status quo," said Karim Rafari, a prominent political activist. "It (the election) is just a political maneuver that ensures that the needs of those at the top are seen to."    

Apart from al Qaeda's interest in using Yemen as a staging ground for attacks, Saudi Arabia suspects Shi'ite power Iran of supporting Houthi rebels in the north. The Shi'ite group has regained some of the momentum it lost when Saudi Arabia sent troops to the porous 1,460 km (910 mile) border in 2009 to suppress the rebellion.    

Holding the country together will be a feat, let alone drafting a constitution and holding a referendum to pave the way for a multi-party election in two years' time, as laid out in the Gulf initiative.

Reuters