Introduction to the evening news 21-02-2012

Charbel Nahas did it. He resigned marking a first since the Taef agreement. Between the Minister’s conviction and General Michel Aoun’s determination to agree with the majority on the fate of the government through a new approach, a dramatic leap had to be taken.         

Before General Michel Aoun’s meeting with House Speaker Nabih Berri last Friday, deliberations with minister Nahas kicked off to find a specific formula to solve the issue of the transportation allowance decree. The draft law presented by MP Ibrahim Kanaan on Saturday was formulated in consultation with Nahas, which was also the case of Nahas’ submission of the transportation allowance decree to the State Shura Council. Aoun was thus stuck between the pre-legislative session pressure and the pressure exerted by the prime minister and the house speaker on Nahas to either sign the decree, resign or have his confidence taken.               

In the face of Nahas’ intransigence, especially after he sent the decree to the State Shura Council in the form of a letter despite intensive negotiations with MP Alain Aoun, choices had to be opened given that Nahas did not give the head of the Change and Reform bloc a political movement margin. Nahas sent the resignation notice to Aoun who kept it with him awaiting the result of tomorrow’s session to put the intentions of allies and partners at stake. Passing the draft law at the public authority will decide the following steps, especially that Nahas has not submitted his resignation notice to the prime minister, as stipulated by the protocol.           

Herein lies the question: What if the calculations of the bloc and the positions of both the opposition and the economic bodies prevented the ratification of the bloc’s suggestion regarding the transportation allowance? Will Aoun freeze the resignation? If Kanaan or Nabil de Freige’s suggestion was not ratified, will Nicolas Fattoush, as an acting Labor Minister, sign the transportation allowance decree? If things go as planned, will the cabinet sessions be resumed, or will the dispute go back to square one under the theme of appointments, the executive power’s workflow and the dispute over the prerogatives of both the prime minister and the cabinet? Where does the president stand from all these developments, including the understandings reached by mediation between Aoun, Mikati and Berri?