Lebanon's Presidential Election: Are Amal-Hezbollah Capable of Disrupting the Quorum?

The Lebanese presidential election set for Wednesday teeters on uncertainty as the Parliament grapples with electing a new president. Both Sleiman Frangieh and Jihad Azour are in the running, but there are signals suggesting that the quorum could be lost, either in the first or second round.

In Lebanon's political landscape, the opposition parties and the Free Patriotic Movement collectively wield a significant portion of parliamentary votes. They have the power to disrupt the quorum if they decide it is necessary.

But how strong is the support behind Frangieh? Do his backers secure one-third of the Parliament—43 MPs—to potentially disrupt the session in its first or second round by exiting the voting hall?

Frangieh's backing team is composed of 30 MPs from the Amal Movement and Hezbollah blocs, including Speaker Nabih Berri. 

This faction is further fortified by the four MPs of the independent national bloc, considered as Frangieh's allies. It also includes the five deputies from the national consensus bloc, and MPs Jihad Samad, Haider Nasser, George Bushikian, and Jamil El Sayyed. In total, 43 MPs back Frangieh and could destabilize the session.

Now the question is, will the Amal Movement and Hezbollah duo risk entering the session with this "bare minimum" number, or will they attempt to broaden their base by attracting MPs from other parties?

The Armenian Revolutionary Federation (Tashnaq) deputies have yet to settle their stance, which will be taken on the eve of the session. Nonetheless, Tashnaq acknowledges the importance of seriously considering any candidate's received votes, especially if they reach an absolute majority.

On the other hand, MP Karim Kabbara told LBCI that his position is firm, and he will not participate in disrupting the quorum of any electoral session.

The Change bloc deputies and the independent deputies are fundamentally opposed to the principle of disrupting the quorum. 

In conclusion, the outcome of Wednesday's session remains uncertain by all standards. The true situation will only be revealed after the parliamentary votes are counted.